======A Realistic Risk Assessment of the Presidential Election of 2024======
This report assesses the risk of the 2024 U.S. presidential election being manipulated through the Electoral Count Act.\\ 
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^  Quick Facts  ^^
| Report location:  |[[https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/Delivery.cfm/SSRN_ID4018380_code1665028.pdf?abstractid=4018380&mirid=1| source]]  |
| Language:  | English   |
| Publisher:  |[[encyclopedia:social_science_research_network|Social Science Research Network]]  |
| Publication date:  |January 26, 2022  |
| Authors:  |Matthew Seligman  |
| Time horizon:  | 2024    |
| Geographic focus:  |United_States   |
| Page count:  |6  |

=====Methods=====
The research method involved analyzing plausible political predictions for the 2024 presidential election, examining the structure of the Electoral Count Act, and identifying the most likely strategies for manipulating the election outcome.\\ 
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=====Key Insights=====
The report analyzes the potential for partisan manipulation of the 2024 U.S. presidential election through the Electoral Count Act of 1887. It identifies the most plausible political predictions for the election, including the likelihood of a close race, the behavior of the Senate and House of Representatives, and the actions of governors in swing states. The analysis concludes that the greatest risk lies in the "Swing State Governor's Gambit," where a governor and the House could collaborate to reverse election results. The report argues that reform efforts should focus on this risk, as it is more likely than both chambers of Congress acting together to subvert the election.\\ 
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=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2020s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2022_publication_year}} |  {{tag>2024_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>United_States_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>congressional_behavior}} |  {{tag>election_reform}} |  {{tag>electoral_college}} |  {{tag>electoral_count_act}} |  {{tag>governor_actions}} |  {{tag>partisan_manipulation}} |  {{tag>political_predictions}} |  {{tag>presidential_election}} |  {{tag>risk_assessment}} |  {{tag>swing_states}}   </span>  


~~DISCUSSION~~