======Economic Effects of Peak Oil======
This paper analyzes the economic impact of peak oil and subsequent oil shortages on global economies, focusing on price effects and GDP changes.  \\ 
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^  Quick Facts  ^^
|Report location:  |[[https://foresightfordevelopment.org/sobipro/download-file/46-871/54|source]]   |
|Language:  |English  |
|Publisher:  |<WRAP> 
Unknown
</WRAP>   |
|Authors:  | Christian Lutz,  Kirsten S. Wiebe, Ulrike Lehr  |
|Time horizon:  |2020    |
|Geographic focus:  |Germany, United States, Japan, China, Opec, Russia, Global   |

=====Methods=====
The research method involves model-based scenario analysis using the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. This model matches global oil demand with supply by adjusting oil prices and incorporates technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy that are not forecastable using econometric methods.  \\ 
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=====Key Insights=====
The research explores the economic consequences of a potential peak in global oil production and the resulting supply shortages. It employs scenario analysis to predict how a sharp rise in oil prices could affect various sectors in Germany and other major economies, including the U.S., Japan, China, OPEC countries, and Russia. The study finds that oil price increases could have significant impacts on GDP, comparable to the 2008/09 financial crises. While oil-exporting countries may benefit from higher prices, oil-importing nations could suffer adverse effects. The research suggests that energy efficiency measures and a shift to renewable energy could mitigate the vulnerability to oil price shocks.  \\ 
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(Generated with the help of GPT-4) \\ 


=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2020_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2020s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>China_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>Germany_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Global_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Japan_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Opec_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Russia_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>United_States_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>economic_impact}} |  {{tag>economic_oil_price_effects}} |  {{tag>energy_efficiency}} |  {{tag>futures}} |  {{tag>gdp}} |  {{tag>global_economies}} |  {{tag>global_energy-economy-environment_model.}} |  {{tag>oil_demand}} |  {{tag>oil_price}} |  {{tag>oil_supply}} |  {{tag>peak_oil}} |  {{tag>renewable_energy}} |  {{tag>scenario_analysis}}   </span>  


~~DISCUSSION~~