======Forecasting the Diffusion of an Innovation Prior to Launch======
Forecasting the Diffusion of an Innovation Prior to Launch  \\ 
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^  Quick Facts  ^^
|Report location:  |[[https://foresightfordevelopment.org/library/download-file/46-1392/54|source]]   |
|Language:  |English  |
|Authors:  |Gabler, Sonke Albers Institute Of Innovation Research, Christian‐albrechts‐university At Kiel  |
|Time horizon:  |2004    |
|Geographic focus:  |Global   |

=====Methods=====
The research method involves analyzing the diffusion of innovations before their launch, focusing on the Bass model and using descriptors like peak sales period and sales percentage to predict diffusion. The study compares different forecasting methods to determine the most accurate approach.  \\ 
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=====Key Insights=====
Companies face a dilemma when introducing new products, needing to forecast the market's response. The Bass model is commonly used to predict the diffusion of innovations, focusing on innovators and imitators. Different methods, such as weighted averages and meta-analyses, are explored to forecast diffusion accurately.  \\ 
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=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2000s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2004_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>Global_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>diffusion_processes}} |  {{tag>forecasting}} |  {{tag>futures}} |  {{tag>germany}} |  {{tag>inference_method}} |  {{tag>meta-analytical_innovation}} |  {{tag>predictive_validity}} |  {{tag>products}}   </span>  


~~DISCUSSION~~