======Keys: Kenya Youth Scenarios======
This research report explores the potential futures of Kenya's youth by 2031, focusing on their role in shaping the country's direction. It uses scenario-building methodologies to project four different paths based on varying levels of youth participation and equality. The report highlights the importance of addressing youth concerns, such as employment and political engagement, to leverage the demographic structure as an asset rather than a burden. It also emphasizes the need for good governance, investment in social programs, and preparation for a mature population structure. The scenarios range from a "Tsunami" of youth-led revolutionary change to an "Ocean" of government investment in youth, a "Pond" of inertia and failure, and a "Waterfall" of economic focus with political retreat. The report calls for strategic action from citizens and leaders to navigate these potential futures.  \\ 
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^  Quick Facts  ^^
|Report location:  |[[https://foresightfordevelopment.org/sobipro/download-file/46-403/54|source]]   |
|Language:  |English  |
|Publisher:  |<WRAP> 
Institute Of Economic Affairs (IEA) \\ 
</WRAP>   |
|Authors:  | Dr. Mshai Mwangola, Katindi Sivi-njonjo  |
|Time horizon:  |2031    |
|Geographic focus:  |Kenya   |

=====Methods=====
The research method used in the report involves scenario-building techniques to project possible futures for Kenya's youth by 2031. This method includes analyzing past trends, current realities, and future driving forces to construct narratives that explore different outcomes based on varying levels of youth participation and equality. The scenarios are anchored on bi-polar variables of demographics and governance, reflecting the impact of youth engagement and societal equality on Kenya's future. The process also incorporates regional workshops, knowledge sharing, assumption testing, and policy proposal extraction to create a comprehensive and systematic approach to understanding the potential directions Kenya may take.  \\ 
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=====Key Insights=====
The research report titled "Kenya Youth Scenarios" presents an in-depth analysis of the potential futures of Kenya's youth population by 2031. It employs scenario-building techniques to explore how the youth could shape Kenya's future, considering factors such as governance, demographics, and levels of equality and participation. The report identifies four distinct scenarios: Tsunami, Ocean, Pond, and Waterfall, each representing different outcomes based on the extent of youth engagement and societal equality. The Tsunami scenario depicts a revolutionary front led by youth demanding secession, while the Ocean scenario illustrates a government that successfully invests in youth, leading to economic growth and stability. The Pond scenario portrays a stagnant society with bad governance and a failed state, and the Waterfall scenario shows a retreat from political participation as youth pursue economic success. The report underscores the importance of addressing youth unemployment, political inclusion, and social services to harness the demographic dividend and avoid potential crises. It also highlights the role of technology, education, and health as critical drivers of the future. The scenarios serve as a call to action for all stakeholders to consider the implications of their choices and the need for strategic planning to ensure a prosperous future for Kenya's youth.  \\ 
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=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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~~DISCUSSION~~