======Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today======
This report analyzes the economic implications of peak oil and its effects on global energy demand and prices over the next decade.  \\ 
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(Generated with the help of GPT-4) \\ 
  

^  Quick Facts  ^^
|Report location:  |[[https://foresightfordevelopment.org/sobipro/download-file/46-881/54|source]]   |
|Language:  |English  |
|Publisher:  |<WRAP> 
Gesellschaft Für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung MbH \\ 
</WRAP>   |
|Authors:  | Christian Lutz,  Kirsten Wiebe, Ulrike Lehr  |
|Geographic focus:  |Global   |

=====Methods=====
The research employs the Global Interindustry Forecasting System (GINFORS), a sectorally disaggregated global energy-environment-economy model that combines econometric-statistical analysis with input-output analysis. It simulates scenarios to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil supply shortage against a baseline scenario based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009.  \\ 
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(Generated with the help of GPT-4) \\

=====Key Insights=====
The research examines the macroeconomic consequences of peak oil, assuming a decline in oil production and rising demand. It uses the GINFORS model to simulate scenarios, comparing a baseline with no shortage to scenarios with peak oil and peak oil with efficiency/renewable energy measures. The study finds that peak oil could lead to significant oil price increases, affecting economies differently based on their oil productivity and trade relationships. Oil-exporting countries benefit, while others face GDP losses. Efficiency improvements and renewable energy expansion can mitigate negative impacts. The analysis is based on if-then scenarios and highlights the importance of climate action programs.  \\ 
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(Generated with the help of GPT-4) \\ 


=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>Global_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>economic_implications}} |  {{tag>energy}} |  {{tag>energy_demand}} |  {{tag>energy_efficiency}} |  {{tag>energy_supply}} |  {{tag>ginfors_model}} |  {{tag>global_economy}} |  {{tag>global_interindustry_forecasting_system}} |  {{tag>macroeconomic_effects}} |  {{tag>macroeconomic_oil_prices}} |  {{tag>oil_price}} |  {{tag>oil_production_decreases}} |  {{tag>oil_supply_shortages}} |  {{tag>opec}} |  {{tag>peak_oil}} |  {{tag>renewable_energy}} |  {{tag>russia}} |  {{tag>scenario_analysis}}   </span>  


~~DISCUSSION~~