======Urban sustainability in developing countries’ megacities: modelling and predicting future urban growth in Lagos======
This report models and predicts future urban growth in Lagos, Nigeria, using dynamic spatial models to address urban sustainability in developing countries' megacities.  \\ 
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^  Quick Facts  ^^
|Report location:  |[[https://foresightfordevelopment.org/sobipro/download-file/46-61/54|source]]   |
|Language:  |English  |
|Publisher:  |<WRAP> 
[[encyclopedia:nl_els_elsevier|Elsevier]] 
</WRAP>   |
|Authors:  | Luca Demicheli, Jose I. Barredo  |
|Time horizon:  |2020    |
|Geographic focus:  |Lagos, Nigeria   |

=====Methods=====
The research method involved a dynamic spatial model prototype to simulate urban growth. The model integrated land-use factors with a dynamic approach, calibrated using spatial metrics and Kappa coefficients. A twenty-year simulation was run to predict future urban land-use scenarios.  \\ 
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=====Key Insights=====
The report examines urban sustainability in African megacities, focusing on Lagos, Nigeria. It discusses the need for tools to provide prospective urban scenarios and describes a dynamic spatial model prototype used to simulate Lagos's urban growth until 2020. The model integrates land-use factors with a dynamic approach, using spatial metrics and Kappa coefficients for calibration. The simulation results are realistic and confirm the model's effectiveness, contributing to the European Commission’s MOLAND project on urban management.  \\ 
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=====Additional Viewpoints=====
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<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2020_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2020s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>Lagos_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Nigeria_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>dynamic_spatial_models}} |  {{tag>environmental_impact}} |  {{tag>land-use_scenarios}} |  {{tag>population_growth}} |  {{tag>spatial_metrics}} |  {{tag>sustainability}} |  {{tag>urban_growth}} |  {{tag>urban_planning}} |  {{tag>urban_simulation}} |  {{tag>urban_sprawl}} |  {{tag>urban_sustainability}}   </span>  


~~DISCUSSION~~