Russia's demographic future is bleak, marked by a declining and aging population, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, leading to a potential loss of ethnic Russians and increased diversity.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source PDF |
| Language: | English |
| Publication date: | August 7, 2024 |
| Publisher: | Atlantic Council |
| Authors: | Harley Balzer |
| Time horizon: | 2100 |
| Geographic focus: | Russia |
| Page count: | 0 |
The research method involved a comprehensive analysis of demographic data, historical context, and policy evaluations related to Russia's population trends. It synthesized information from various sources, including United Nations projections and Russian state statistics, to assess the impact of socio-political factors on demographic changes.
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This report examines the demographic challenges facing Russia, particularly in light of President Putin's war in Ukraine. It argues that Russia's population will decline significantly over the coming decades, with projections suggesting a decrease from 146 million to between 74 million and 112 million by 2100. The war has intensified existing demographic issues, including low birth rates, high mortality rates, and a brain drain of educated individuals. Despite efforts to improve the situation through national projects and pro-natalist policies, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited. The report highlights the impact of historical factors, such as the Soviet legacy and economic disruptions, on current demographic trends. Additionally, it discusses the ethnic and regional disparities in birth rates, noting that non-Russian populations tend to have higher fertility rates. The report concludes that unless Russia adopts more effective policies to address these demographic challenges, it will face a future characterized by a smaller, older, and more diverse population, with significant implications for its social and economic stability.
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Categories: 2100 time horizon | 2100s time horizon | 2024 publication year | English publication language | Russia geographic scope | birth rates | demographics | economic challenges | ethnic diversity | historical context | immigration | mortality rates | policy analysis | population decline | war impact