A Russia without Russians? Putin’s disastrous demographics

Russia's demographic future is bleak, marked by a declining and aging population, exacerbated by the war in Ukraine, leading to a potential loss of ethnic Russians and increased diversity.

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Quick Facts
Report location: source PDF
Language: English
Publication date: August 7, 2024
Publisher: Atlantic Council
Authors: Harley Balzer
Time horizon: 2100
Geographic focus: Russia
Page count: 0

Methods

The research method involved a comprehensive analysis of demographic data, historical context, and policy evaluations related to Russia's population trends. It synthesized information from various sources, including United Nations projections and Russian state statistics, to assess the impact of socio-political factors on demographic changes.

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Key Insights

This report examines the demographic challenges facing Russia, particularly in light of President Putin's war in Ukraine. It argues that Russia's population will decline significantly over the coming decades, with projections suggesting a decrease from 146 million to between 74 million and 112 million by 2100. The war has intensified existing demographic issues, including low birth rates, high mortality rates, and a brain drain of educated individuals. Despite efforts to improve the situation through national projects and pro-natalist policies, the effectiveness of these measures has been limited. The report highlights the impact of historical factors, such as the Soviet legacy and economic disruptions, on current demographic trends. Additionally, it discusses the ethnic and regional disparities in birth rates, noting that non-Russian populations tend to have higher fertility rates. The report concludes that unless Russia adopts more effective policies to address these demographic challenges, it will face a future characterized by a smaller, older, and more diverse population, with significant implications for its social and economic stability.

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