Africa's current and future stability

This report analyzes Africa's conflict burden within a global context, using data from key datasets to assess trends in violence and instability. It examines historical patterns, recent increases in armed violence, and the nature of political armed violence in Africa, particularly non-state conflicts. The paper also explores potential future impacts of changes in Africa's development and security prospects, modeling three scenarios: a Base Case, an African Renaissance, and a Politics of the Belly scenario. The research draws from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and considers implications for economic growth, poverty, and development.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location: source
Language: English
Publisher: Institute for Security Studies
Authors: Steve Hedden, Jakkie Cilliers
Time horizon: 2063
Geographic focus: Africa
Page count: 24 pages

Methods

The research method includes a review of historical data on conflict and fatalities, analysis of recent trends in political violence using ACLED data, and scenario modeling using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. The scenarios are based on different assumptions about governance and global context, projecting potential outcomes for Africa's development trajectory up to the year 2063.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The research employs a combination of historical data analysis and scenario modeling to understand trends in political violence and armed conflict in Africa. It uses data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) to provide a detailed picture of the increases in social instability and protests since 2010. The paper also models the implications of increased or decreased levels of armed violence on Africa's economic growth and development, presenting three alternative future scenarios: Base Case, African Renaissance, and Politics of the Belly.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Additional Viewpoints

Categories: | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |