This report examines potential drivers of humanitarian crises in West Africa beyond 2020, focusing on complex interrelationships and dimensions of threats. It emphasizes the need for strategic planning to anticipate and respond to crises differently from current approaches, considering the rapid changes in climate, environment, and population. ECOWAS has made progress in conflict response and disaster risk reduction, but future crises will be shaped by structural 'meta-drivers' specific to the region and global contexts that require speculative assessment. The report projects key structural parameters for the 2020s and assesses individual crisis drivers under seven dimensions of human security, adopting a probabilistic and speculative methodology.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
Humanitarian Futures Programme (HFP) |
| Geographic focus: | West Africa |
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(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
The research method used in the report combines trends analysis with speculative scenario development. It involves gathering observed and projected data for structural factors, conducting interviews with experts, and embracing speculation to consider both likely and possible future events. The report uses a combination of probabilistic forecasting and possibilistic scenario modeling to scan the horizon for potential drivers of humanitarian crises in West Africa.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)