Forecasting Long-term Global Fertilizer Demand

The report forecasts long-term global fertilizer demand and its impact on soil nutrient status across nine regions.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location: source
Language: English
Publisher: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
Authors: J. Lowenberg-deboer, F. Tenkorang
Geographic focus: Global, Asia, Sub-saharan Africa, Latin America, North America, European Union, Near East, Oceania, Rest Of Europe

Methods

The research employed a causal model based on agronomic relationships to forecast fertilizer demand and assess soil nutrient status. Historical data on fertilizer consumption, crop production, and cultivated land were used, with adjustments for multicollinearity and autocorrelation. The model also considered structural shifts in consumption patterns.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The study projects global fertilizer demand for 2015 and 2030, analyzing soil nutrient drawdown and buildup in nine regions. It finds that Asia will dominate demand, while Sub-Saharan Africa will have the lowest consumption. Soil nutrient depletion is a concern, particularly where fertilizer use is inadequate. The report suggests that increased fertilizer use is necessary for food security and biofuels production, and calls for policy reform, farmer education, and technology development to counter soil nutrient depletion.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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