This report analyzes the economic implications of peak oil and its effects on global energy demand and prices over the next decade.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Quick Facts | |
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Report location: | source |
Language: | English |
Publisher: |
Gesellschaft Für Wirtschaftliche Strukturforschung MbH |
Authors: | Christian Lutz, Kirsten Wiebe, Ulrike Lehr |
Geographic focus: | Global |
The research employs the Global Interindustry Forecasting System (GINFORS), a sectorally disaggregated global energy-environment-economy model that combines econometric-statistical analysis with input-output analysis. It simulates scenarios to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil supply shortage against a baseline scenario based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
The research examines the macroeconomic consequences of peak oil, assuming a decline in oil production and rising demand. It uses the GINFORS model to simulate scenarios, comparing a baseline with no shortage to scenarios with peak oil and peak oil with efficiency/renewable energy measures. The study finds that peak oil could lead to significant oil price increases, affecting economies differently based on their oil productivity and trade relationships. Oil-exporting countries benefit, while others face GDP losses. Efficiency improvements and renewable energy expansion can mitigate negative impacts. The analysis is based on if-then scenarios and highlights the importance of climate action programs.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | economic implications | energy | energy demand | energy efficiency | energy supply | ginfors model | global economy | global interindustry forecasting system | macroeconomic effects | macroeconomic oil prices | oil price | oil production decreases | oil supply shortages | opec | peak oil | renewable energy | russia | scenario analysis