Prospects for Africa's 26 fragile countries

This report forecasts the long-term fragility of 26 African countries using the International Futures system.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location: source
Language: English
Publisher:

Institute for Security Studies
African Futures Project

Authors: Timothy D Sisk, Jakkie Cilliers
Time horizon: 2030
Geographic focus: Africa

Methods

The research method involved using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting tool to analyze data and create long-term forecasts for 26 fragile African countries. The method included defining fragility, identifying relevant variables, and generating optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The report analyzes the future of 26 fragile African countries, predicting that some will remain fragile into the mid-21st century, while others may progress towards stability and middle-income status by 2030 or 2050. It uses the International Futures forecasting tool to examine variables of fragility and provides optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Recommendations include planning for long-term fragility, managing conflict, addressing poverty, and improving governance.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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