This report forecasts the long-term fragility of 26 African countries, identifying ten that may remain fragile until 2050.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Institute for Security Studies |
| Authors: | Timothy D Sisk, Jakkie Cilliers |
| Geographic focus: | Africa |
| Time Horizon: | 2050 |
| Page count: | 12 pages |
The research utilized the International Futures (IFs) data-analysis and forecasting tool to project the future of 26 fragile African countries. These countries were selected based on indicators reflecting the fragility syndrome. The authors argue that fragility is a mutually reinforcing system of conditions and provide forecasts under optimistic, pessimistic, and base-case scenarios.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
The report provides forecasts for 26 fragile African countries using the International Futures system. It suggests that while some may progress towards stability by 2030 or 2050, ten countries risk remaining trapped in fragility beyond 2050. The research emphasizes the importance of planning for continued fragility and recommends strategies for external partners to support long-term national development plans and improve governance, conflict prevention, and poverty reduction.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Categories: 2050_time_horizon | 2050s time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | africa's fragile countries | conflict reduction | development | economic growth | forecasting methodology | foreign affairs | fragility syndrome | governance | human development | inequality | natural resources | politics | poverty | research | security | urbanization