Prospects for Africa's 26 Fragile Countries

This report forecasts the long-term fragility of 26 African countries, identifying ten that may remain fragile until 2050.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location: source
Language: English
Publisher: Institute for Security Studies
Authors: Timothy D Sisk, Jakkie Cilliers
Geographic focus: Africa
Time Horizon: 2050
Page count: 12 pages

Methods

The research utilized the International Futures (IFs) data-analysis and forecasting tool to project the future of 26 fragile African countries. These countries were selected based on indicators reflecting the fragility syndrome. The authors argue that fragility is a mutually reinforcing system of conditions and provide forecasts under optimistic, pessimistic, and base-case scenarios.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The report provides forecasts for 26 fragile African countries using the International Futures system. It suggests that while some may progress towards stability by 2030 or 2050, ten countries risk remaining trapped in fragility beyond 2050. The research emphasizes the importance of planning for continued fragility and recommends strategies for external partners to support long-term national development plans and improve governance, conflict prevention, and poverty reduction.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Additional Viewpoints

Categories: 2050_time_horizon | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | |