African Agriculture in 50 years: Smallholders in a Rapidly Changing World?

This report examines the future of African agriculture and questions the focus on smallholder farming as the main driver for growth and poverty reduction, suggesting that commercial farming and migration out of agriculture are crucial for economic development.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location: source
Language: English
Publisher:
Authors: Stefan Dercon, Paul Collier, Paul Collier And Stefan Dercon
Time horizon: 2050
Geographic focus: Africa

Methods

The research method involved a critical analysis of existing literature, empirical evidence, and historical patterns of agricultural development. The authors also examined the impact of climate change on agriculture and the implications of current policy models.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The report challenges the conventional focus on smallholder farming as the primary means for agricultural growth and poverty reduction in Africa. It argues that for Africa to succeed economically over the next 50 years, agriculture must undergo a radical transformation, with massive increases in production and labor productivity. This will require a significant reduction in the agricultural workforce and migration from rural areas. The paper critiques the evidence base for smallholder-focused policies and advocates for a more open-minded approach to different production modes, including commercial farming. It also discusses the recent trend of 'superfarms'—large-scale land investments by foreign entities—and concludes that while commercialization is desirable, superfarms are not an appropriate model for African agriculture due to their geopolitical rather than commercial nature.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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Last modified: 2024/05/10 18:28 by elizabethherfel