Agriculture in a dynamically-changing environment: IFPRI’s long-term outlook for food & agriculture under new demand & added constraints
Global agriculture faces significant challenges due to changing demand, climate change, and biofuel production, impacting food security and necessitating policy interventions to mitigate negative effects on food prices and malnutrition.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | International Food Policy Research Institute |
| Authors: | Mark W. Rosegrant, Siwa Msangi |
| Time horizon: | 2050 |
| Geographic focus: | Global, Sub-saharan_Africa, South_Asia, East_Asia, North_America, Europe, Latin_America, Central_Asia, Middle_East_And_North_Africa |
Methods
The research method involved analyzing global agricultural trends, projecting future food production and consumption scenarios, and assessing the impacts of various socio-economic and environmental factors on food security.
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Key Insights
The report discusses the dynamic nature of global agriculture, highlighting the drivers of change affecting food production, consumption, and market trends. It emphasizes the impact of rising oil prices and biofuels on agricultural costs and food prices. The analysis reveals that while food prices have fluctuated, increased volatility is expected in the future, particularly affecting regions like Sub-Saharan Africa, which already faces food insecurity. The research identifies various socio-economic and environmental factors influencing food markets, including demographic changes, climate variability, and trade policies. Projections indicate a significant increase in cereal demand by 2050, with varying impacts across regions. The report also addresses the implications of biofuel expansion on malnutrition rates, suggesting that enhanced cereal yield growth could mitigate these effects. Climate change is projected to negatively impact crop yields, particularly for maize and rice. The report concludes with policy recommendations aimed at promoting agricultural growth, protecting vulnerable populations, and avoiding counterproductive measures like export bans. Overall, the findings underscore the need for strategic interventions to ensure food security in a rapidly changing agricultural landscape.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2050 time horizon | 2050s time horizon | Central Asia geographic scope | East Asia geographic scope | English publication language | Europe geographic scope | Global geographic scope | Latin America geographic scope | Middle East And North Africa geographic scope | North America geographic scope | South Asia geographic scope | Sub-saharan Africa geographic scope | agricultural productivity | biofuels | cereal demand | climate change | drivers of change | food | food prices | food security | global food production | malnutrition | policy interventions | socio-economic growth | trade policies