Building long-term scenarios for development: The methodological state of the art with an application to foreign direct investment in Africa
Building long-term scenarios for development explores scenario analysis methods applied to foreign direct investment in Africa, aiming to inform development policy and anticipate future challenges.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | German Development Institute |
| Authors: | Erik Lunsgaarde |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | Africa |
Methods
The research method involved a comprehensive literature review on scenario analysis and foreign direct investment, followed by the construction of four distinct scenarios based on critical uncertainties related to political stability and global economic conditions. The scenarios were developed through a narrative approach, reflecting potential future developments in investment patterns and their implications for Africa.
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Key Insights
This report introduces scenario analysis as a strategic tool for development policy planning, particularly focusing on foreign direct investment (FDI) in Africa. It is divided into three parts: the first outlines scenario analysis methods, distinguishing them from other research approaches and providing a guide for scenario construction. The second part illustrates the application of these methods to FDI in Africa, presenting four fictional narratives that explore potential future investment patterns and their implications for development by 2030. The final section discusses considerations for policymakers interested in integrating scenario methods into their planning processes. The report emphasizes that scenario analysis does not predict the future but rather presents a range of plausible outcomes to help organizations navigate uncertainty. It highlights the importance of engaging diverse perspectives in scenario development and the need for a clear focus to avoid overly broad conclusions. The report concludes that while scenario analysis can enhance strategic reflection, it should complement other research methods rather than replace them.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | development policy | economic growth | fdi | foreign direct investment | future scenarios | global economy | investment | investment patterns | political stability | scenario analysis | stakeholder engagement | uncertainty management