The long-term movement toward greater globalization is being questioned. This is a significant development. Interestingly, globalization and a focus on economic growth have typically been viewed as going hand-in-hand. The reports, however, questioned globalization, but continued to focus on economic growth, although arguably the emphasis is lesser than it has been in the past. The focus on growth has been taken for granted until fairly recently, due to its impact on the environment and resources. More questions are being raised about growth recently, but they are not yet prominently reflected in the open foresight literature.
The Future of Immigration: Four Paths by the Institute for the Future believes that over the past few decades, a vastly more interconnected global economy has created relatively stable growth built on the so- called post-WWII political consensus. Today, however, this vision of a world of autonomous nations working together to manage a global political economy based on a free market has begun to fray under the pressures of growing wealth inequality, a slowdown in global economic growth, the rise of online disinformation, and a need for a new global energy infrastructure. Meanwhile, plutocratic governments undermine democratic institutions, fueled by globally connected networks of crime and corruption. The result is greater political and economic volatility, with more populations at risk of economic and political displacement.
The World in 2040: The future of healthcare, mobility, travel and the home by Allianz Partners makes two salient points. First, that In the last 25 years, modern globalization has done more to reduce world poverty than all of the foreign aid provided by the rich world to the developing world since the end of the Second World War. Second, that it is also much harder than it once was for any existing national economies, including that of the USA, to de-globalize because international commerce today is driven by knowledge flows, which are not stopped by tariffs and walls, and by the large-scale production enabled by cross-border supply chains.
The GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by the US Government Accountability Office, however, notes that growth from such globalization in the United States, while outpacing that of peers in Europe and Japan, has yielded substantial increases in wealth and opportunity for only a small share of the population, despite low unemployment. Lagging growth and opportunity have caused many to reconsider governments’ roles in managing globalization and technology and have increased the appeal of populist and nationalist political movements.
Ten Emerging Technologies for the Untact Era (2021) by the Korea Institute of S&T Evaluation and Planning notes, after the COVID-19 pandemic, a decline in hyper-globalization and a rise in multi-polarization of the existing global order, a rise in protectionism, and an increase in ethnic and national conflict.
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