Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios

Excerpt from report:
““The Forum brought together over 200 stakeholders to focus on the question: what could health systems look like in 2040?””

“The Forum held workshops in five countries «China, Germany, Netherlands, Spain and England», bringing together local stakeholders to explore national visions for sustainable health systems in 2040. In the workshops, participants addressed the question: what is your vision of your nation’s ideal health system in 2040?” Participants included policy-makers, medical professionals, academics as well as representatives of industry, civil society, and healthcare providers. “This project used four key complementary methods for thinking about the future in a structured way: critical uncertainties, scenarios, visions and strategies.”

Workshops of local stakeholders in 5 countries addressed the question: what is your vision of your nations ideal health system in 2030? McKinsey notes the consistency between the five countries' visions. Each nation seeks greater individual empowerment in healthcare decisions and greater accountability on the part of government and industry actors to deliver effective and sustainable health services.

After visioning, countries discussed strategies to achieve their vision. Each country focused on particular goals. Three main themes emerged from the conversations:

1. Embrace data and information to transform healthcare
2. Innovate healthcare delivery
3. Build healthy cities and countries of the future

• Social - Attitudes toward Aging
• Social - Community Involvement
• Social - Attitudes toward Solidarity
• Social - Health Culture
• Social - Incidence of Chronic Disease
• Technological - Health Innovation System
• Technological - Access to Health Information
• Environmental - Climate Change
• Enironmental - Pollution and Toxicity
• Environmental - Incidence with Infectious Disease
• Environmental - Population Sanitation
• Economic - State of the Economy
• Economic - Resource Availability
• Economic - Income Equality
• Political - Influence over Lifestyles
• Political - Conflict
• Political - Origin of Governance
• Political - Public Funding Allocation
• Political - Patterns of Migration

Three scenarios were devleoped to explore how the critical uncertainties may impact future healthcare systems:

1. Health incorporated: “the boundaries of the health industry are redefined. Corporations provide new products and services as markets liberalize, governments cut back on public services and a new sense of conditional solidarity emerges.”
2. New social contract: “governments are responsible for driving health system efficiency and for regulating organizations and individuals to pursue healthy living.”
3. Super-powered individuals: “citizens use an array of products and services to manage their own health. Meanwhile, corporations compete for this lucrative market and governments try to address the consequences.”

Categories: English publication language | healthcare systems | other geographic scope | visioning methodology | scenario methodology | drivers methodology | strategy methodology | report