AI and automation are not only expanding but accelerating. The developments are perceived as picking up the pace, but those with a historical perspective would note that it has been a long and slow journey. The reports may neglect history a bit, but they are noting that major breakthroughs are happening or poised to happen. Supporters are excited about the possibilities of a technology-driven utopia. Others are trying to raise the social and ethical concerns resulting from these powerful technologies. They are fighting an uphill battle. There is a strong connection here the push for economic growth driver. These technologies are viewed as essential to maintaining economic growth – this push is more poignant as there are many signs of growth slowing down. Thus, objections are brushed aside.
Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry by World Economic Forum presents three potential future scenarios and their implications for the infrastructure urban development industries: 1.) Building in a virtual world; 2.) Factories run the world; 3.) A green reboot. These scenarios explore different paths of technological advancement, social changes, and environmental challenges. AI applications and other technologies that get smarter the more they are used fuel economic growth in Building a virtual world. Additionally, automation minimizes the need for human input.
Technology and Innovation Futures 2017 by the UK Government Office for Science discusses emerging technologies and their potential impact on various sectors. The key conclusion from this report is that technologies are converging to allow us to gather much more data about the world around us. Data can be combined to form new understandings and inform our indivdual and social activites. Algorithms and machine learning are technologies that underpin a data-driven world.
The World in 2040: The future of healthcare, mobility, travel and the home by Allianz Partners provides an overview of the megatrends shaping the 21st century. It highlights key factors such as demographic changes, technological advancements, climate change, and shifting economic power. The report explores the implications of these megatrends, one of which is accelerating exponential information technology development. This megatrend suggests that 'Moore's Law' is reaching its limits, but improvements in AI, computer architecture, and network bandwidth allow for continued exponential growth in computer performance.
The Future of Risk: New Game, New Rules by Deloitte explores the evolving landscape of risk management. It explores 10 drivers and discusses how advancements in technology, globalization, and changing business models are reshaping the risk landscape for organizations. One of those 10 drivers iscognitive technologies augment human decision-making. Developments in AI and access to huge amounts of data will assist and even replace human-led risk management.
Human Progress and Human Services 2035: A Scenario Exploration by Institute for Alternative Futures explores the future of human services and its impact on human progress in the year 2035. It envisions a shift towards personalized, integrated, and technology-driven services that prioritize individual well-being and social equity. The endnotes list topics explored to help develop the scenarios. Among these is job loss to automation. Automation and cognitive computing will have a big impact on the economy, family income, and the need for human services. These technologies will create some new jobs, but jobs created will be far fewer than jobs lost.
Future of Government in 2030 by e.Republic is a series of short essays compiling the thoughts of over two dozen futurists. Some of these cover artificial intelligence. “Conversational AI and digital identity will be a game changer in how citizens interact with their governments.
The OECD Scenarios for the Future of Schooling by OECD is a chapter of four scenarios for 2040:
Artificial intelligence, big data, and sophisticated algorithms could eliminate the need for students to learn facts. Care should be taken to regularly audit the algorithms and protect student data.
2022 Strategic Foresight Report by the European Commission explores the interplay between the green and digital transitions in the context of evolving geopolitics. The report emphasizes the need to understand the interactions between these transitions to maximize synergies and minimize tensions. It outlines four key targets: achieving digital skills for all, ensuring secure and sustainable digital infrastructure, promoting digitalization of businesses, and enhancing digital public services. Artificial intelligence is identified as a critical technology to help create a climate neutral society, particularly in the transportation sector.
Exploring Europe's Capability Requirements for 2035 and Beyond by RAND examines the security and defense challenges that European societies may face in the future. Future technological developments are likely to be 'game-changing' for society. AI and autonomous systems may change individual, intra-national, and international interactions in many domains.
Driving Forces 2035 Cards by Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures is a set of cards intended to start conversations about key forces of change that will shape Singapore in the next 20 years. the cards are geared towards policymakers and are meant to be used in a workshop setting. One of the cards, human substitution, discusses technologies that could help overcome Singapore's land a labor constraints, but also destroy jobs.
GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society by US Government Accountability Office is a study on the challenges faced by the federal government in managing and overseeing cybersecurity risks. Advances in information and communication technology, AI, and robotics are expected to change the nature of work, creating new jobs and destroying old ones.
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