Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond

This report examines Europe's future defense capabilities, focusing on technology and strategic trends impacting military requirements beyond 2035.

Excerpt from report:
“This study was commissioned by the European Defence Agency (EDA) in response to the invitation to tender No.16.CPS.OP.186.

Insights from the 2018 update of the long-term strand of the Capability Development Plan

This short publication provides a summary of key findings of this analysis, offering an insight into the CDP process and some of the strategic challenges facing European societies, militaries and industry up to 2035+.”

The European Defence Agency's report explores key factors shaping the strategic environment and future military capabilities required by European forces beyond 2035. It identifies technological innovations and industry developments that could transform warfare and defense planning, emphasizing the need for collaboration and investment in research and technology to maintain Europe's security and strategic autonomy.

A mix of quantitative and qualitative methods were used including: horizon scanning to identify emerging technologies, developing future conflict scenarios, assessing military capability requirements through a tabletop exercise with experts, and analyzing relevant research, technology, and industrial considerations.

Drivers mentioned include:

• Increased age disparities, including an ageing global population but growth of youth populations and youth unemployment in certain regions.
• Population decline in Europe, but slight growth in the rest of the world.
• Polarisation of society.
• Urbanisation, including growth of megacities.
• Empowerment of individuals.
• Reduced trust in government.
• International and internal migration.
• Population concentration in coastal areas.
• Acceleration in the development and use of new technologies.
• Democratisation of technology by emerging powers and non-state actors.
• Civilian and 'dual-use' industries as drivers of innovation, with benefits to military.
• More tools to address social, economic, environmental and military challenges.
• New vulnerabilities, particularly around cybersecurity.
• More capabilities for adversaries.
• Impact of technology on social, cultural, political, ethical and legal norms.
• Continuous economic globalisation, if not without opposition or discontent.
• Decline of cohesion and economic power of the West.
• Rise of emerging economies.
• Increased inequalities.
• Increased costs of the welfare society.
• Impact of new technology on employment, skills and economic opportunity.
• Increased range and scale of impacts from climate change.
• Pollution effects.
• Increased vulnerabilities to pandemic diseases.
• Increased risk of floods and desertification.
• Stresses on resources, such as food, water and energy.
• Competition for agricultural land and raw materials.
• Exploitation of space and pressure on other global commons.
• Decreased role of the state as the main security provider.
• Outsourced military functions.
• Cities increasingly players in their own right.
• Increased importance of Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs), multinational companies, private security and military companies, media, individuals and international organisations.
• Continued need to work through alliances, partnerships and networks.
• Universal and timeless nature of war.
• Unpredictable and constantly changing character of war and conflict.
• Blurring of lines between conventional, unconventional and asymmetric warfare.
• Blurring of lines between war and peace.
• Increase in wars by proxy.
• All physical and virtual domains likely to be utilised, with actors switching across domains to gain advantages. Conflict in densely populated or restricted terrains, such as urban environments.
• Changing pace and focus of technological innovation
• Enabling technologies

Categories: 2030s time horizon | 2035 time horizon | English publication language | Europe geographic scope | { collaboration opportunities | defense planning | industry development | military | military strategy | military technology | research investment | security challenges | strategic autonomy | strategic environment | strategy | technological innovation