Climate change is no longer a distant future concern. We are seeing warming, extreme weather events, and declining resource availability in the present. There are increasing impacts to water availability, food security, electricity, public health, and safety. These impacts disproportionately harm impoverished and marginalized communities, and the developing world. Worsening climate change and extreme weather events could cause disruption, damage, and failure of infrastructure and supply chains, leading to large economic losses. Declining resource availability may also aggravate political tensions and cause shifts in power or outright conflict. As impacts grow, there is increasing public concern and urgency for action. Rapid action is needed to both stop climate change and improve infrastructure to use and distribute limited resources efficiently.
Sustainable Health Systems - Visions, Strategies, Critical Uncertainties and Scenarios by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with McKinsey & Company explores what health systems might look like in 2040. To answer this question, they worked with 200 health experts, policy-makers and health system leaders to develop visions, strategies, critical uncertainties, and scenarios.
World Economic Forum identified 20 key drivers that are influencing the future of health systems through a series of interviews with experts. Two of these drivers- climate change and incidence of infectious diseases were identified in the Horizon 2030-2060 Metastudy as related to climate change impacts.
The World in 2040: The future of healthcare, mobility, travel and the home by Ray Hammond for Allianz Partnersexplores 7 megatrends for 2040, one of which is climate change. The impacts of climate change may be worse than we previously thought. The frequency of extreme weather events is projected to double by 2040. It is unclear whether the public will be able to pressure governments to take action. Nevertheless, coordinated and drastic global action is needed to mitigate the effects of climate change.
Driving Forces 2035 Cards by Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures is a set of cards intended to start conversations about key forces of change that will shape Singapore in the next 20 years. the cards are geared towards policymakers and are meant to be used in a workshop setting. One of the cards, Evolution of the water-energy-food-land nexus, notes that climate change is likely to disrupt resource supply and distribution.
Future of Highways by ARUP examines the future of mobility and transport infrastructure. ARUP identifies changing weather patterns caused by climate change as a megatrend. Changes in temperature, extreme storms, and sea level rise has major implications for the design, operation, and maintenance of transport systems.
Scenarios for the Russian Federation by World Economic Forum analyzes four different scenarios for the future of Russia, based on varying levels of economic, political, and social development. These scenarios range from a “Global Reset” that sees a complete overhaul of the world economy, to a “Low Momentum” scenario where Russia stagnates in its current state. Two of the influential global forces shaping these scenarios are climate change and changing natural resource distribution. Climate change is likely to cause significant challenges for Russia. However, Russia could benefit from warming temperatures and a fast-changing natural resource landscape.
The Future of Protein, The Protein Challenge 2040: Shaping the future of food by Forum for the Future examines the current state of the protein market in the food industry and assesses whether existing commitments and activities are sufficient to address global sustainability challenges. It explores the impact of climate change- particularly soil degradation, habitat loss, and greenhouse gases- on food production.
Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments by KPMG International and the Mowat Centre examines global mega-trends likely to impact the public and private sectors through 2030, and delves into the megatrends' implications for governments. One of the mega-trends is climate change. Striking a balance between adaptation and mitigation strategies is difficult for governments, who are often paralyzed by the uncertainty and complexity of climate change.
Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond by RAND for the European Defense Agency aims to address defense and military challenges in Europe over the long-term. Some of the challenges identified include: pollution effects,increased risk of floods and deforestation, increased range and scale of impacts from climate change, and competition for agricultural land and raw materials.
Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies by the UK Government Office for Science reviewed existing futures studies surrounding energy issues. Major environmental drivers include rising global energy prices, energy resource scarcity, global warming, and CO2 emissions.
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