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--- futures:conflict_going_unconventonal [2023/06/07 18:09] – sarah.wheeler
+++ futures:conflict_going_unconventonal [2023/08/06 05:04] (current) – richarderwin
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 ======Conflict Going Unconventional======
-More lower-level conflict perhaps captures less notice than big high profile conflict – the current Russia-Ukraine conflict being a case in point. Yet that lower level conflict is increasing, and the reports captured it. Conflict is perhaps more of an outcome of other drivers in the sense that failures or shortcomings in governance, social relations, economics, resources, and the environment create conditions conducive to conflict. The inclusion of cybersecurity is important as well, as it too reflects the growing importance of technology in general, and I/T and virtual applications in particular.
+More lower-level conflict perhaps captures less notice than big high-profile conflict – the current Russia-Ukraine conflict being a case in point. Yet that lower-level conflict is increasing, and the reports captured it. Conflict is perhaps more of an outcome of other drivers in the sense that failures or shortcomings in governance, social relations, economics, resources, and the environment create conditions conducive to conflict. The inclusion of cybersecurity is important as well, as it too reflects the growing importance of technology in general, and I/T and virtual applications in particular.
 =====Summary=====
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 /* If your summary gets longer than a couple paragraphs, consider splitting it up under multiple subheadings */
 =====In Futures Research=====
+====Disinformation from Bad Actors / Vulnerability of Voting Systems====
+[[library:future_of_government_in_2030|Future of Government in 2030]] by [[encyclopedia:erepublic|eRepublic Magazine]] states that the fastest rising issues in the future of government are disinformation and bad actors — people who want to harm others and interfere with other countries’ infrastructure and elections. Some nations will respond because they want to protect their citizens; others because they want to protect their regimes.  Either way, there is likely to be an effect on the concept of a global and open internet.
+Our voting system in particular is potentially ripe for disruption. If governments moved their records to a blockchain, we could dramatically improve the voting process by ensuring that every vote is counted while simultaneously cutting down on voter fraud. It could also make voting much easier, removing the need for people to manually queue up at a polling station. If we can shop online, why shouldn’t we be able to vote online, too? Especially if we’re able to use blockchain to make digital voting fairer and more tamper-proof than the existing system.
+====Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning====
+[[library:the_impact_of_new_and_emerging_technologies_on_the_cyber_threat_landscape_and_their_implications_for_nato|The Impact of New and Emerging Technologies on the Cyber Threat Landscape and Their Implications for NATO]], by [[encyclopedia:rand|Rand]], states that artificial Intelligence in general, and Machine Learning in particular, could be used to: 1) to automate cyberattacks; 2) analyze large, complex real-time data sets to predict or support strategic, operational and tactical decision making; 3) cause adversaries' Machine Learning models to behave in unintended ways, and 4) generate deepfakes for propaganda or covert purposes.
+That said, the most significant impact on the cyber threat landscape will stem from both the complex interaction and combination of new and existing technologies, and broader interplay with the socio-technological environment. The pervasiveness that new and emerging technologies will achieve will span defense, security, critical infrastructure and the overall day-to-day functioning of societies. It may also result in cascading effects which will be difficult to predict or mitigate in increasingly complex and non-linear systems.
+====New Vulnerabilities around Cybersecurity / Blurring of Lines regarding Warfare====
+[[library:exploring_europes_capability_requirements_for_2035_and_beyond|Exploring Europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond]] by [[encyclopedia:rand|Rand]] states that, while technological advances may help to address key military capabilities, they may also create new security vulnerabilities and cause ethical, moral and legal concerns. Continuous technological developments may also create a misleading perception among populations and decision makers that technologies can provide a solution to all problems, which could lead to an overreliance on them. Communication technologies may also alter high-level strategic political and military decision making by making them increasingly influenced by individual opinions. Moreover, due to the global growth of technology, technologies such as cyber-based tools, non-lethal weapons, bio-engineered weapons and weapons of mass destruction may become more affordable and increasingly become part of adversary’s arsenals.
+The overall character of war is unpredictable and continuously evolving; new technologies will most probably not be able to eliminate the fog of war. Future conflicts are likely to be characterized by a disintegration of the border between conventional and unconventional or asymmetric warfare and between the states of war and peace. While the possibility of interstate conflicts will continue to exist, conflicts may include elements of hybrid warfare, proxy wars, use of cyber capabilities and use of strategic attacks to disrupt critical infrastructure, particularly in areas that highly value data integrity, such as financial services. At the same time, war will retain its fundamental nature as a violent and purposeful activity.
+====Transnational Security Challenges====
+[[library:central_america_2030_trends|Central America 2030 Trends]] by [[encyclopedia:global_americans|Global Americans]] states that transnational crime and security remain Central America’s biggest threat — a threat that is spilling outside the region’s borders, affecting Mexico and the United States.
+[[library:caribbean_2030_trends|Caribbean 2030 Trends]] by [[encyclopedia:global_americans|Global Americans]] reinforces this point, stating that several countries across the region face extremely high rates of violent crime, to the extent that it has been deemed “comparable to countries in armed conflict.” These rates have continued to rise in recent years and pose a major challenge to the domestic stability and economic growth of these countries.
 =====Additional Viewpoints=====
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