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--- futures:defining_driver [2023/06/26 01:44] – davidpjonker
+++ futures:defining_driver [2023/06/28 15:43] (current) – elizabethherfel
@@ Line 11: / Line 11: @@
 The definition of driver used for the study:
-<dfn>A driver is a thematic cluster of related inputs from scanning and research i.e., scan hits, trends, issues, that is driving or shaping change in a domain.</dfn>
+<span #example_box>A driver is a thematic cluster of related inputs from scanning and research i.e., scan hits, trends, issues, that is driving or shaping change in a domain.</span>
 The definition refers to the Association of Professional Futurists (APF) Foresight competency model, which describes competencies in a process flow of six steps: [cite: Building Foresight Capacity article]
@@ Line 43: / Line 43: @@
 By xx, something “will” happen. This means it hasn’t happened yet, which we say means it is not a driver of change. That said, we believe that “aspirational” drivers of Inayatullah’s Futures Triangle are useful. In this case, we would frame them largely as conceptual. For instance, net zero or net plus or even the circular economy are not here yet, but that are enormously influential aspirational concept – these concepts are currently pulling us into the future. They exist as ideas today, thus meet our criteria for drivers being in the present and distinguished from forecasts or projects set in the future.
-On a similar note, we’d avoid framing them in the past as well. For instance, “Employers continued reliance on traditional forms of education.” This doesn’t make it clear if the driver is still relevant, so we’d reframe in the present tense as: Employers are continuing to rely on traditional forms of education.
 For example with driver “Cognitive technologies augment human decision-making” is described as “in a sensor-enabled, hyper-connected environment, organizations will deploy pervasive controls as part of their products, services, and business models to monitor and manage risk in real time.” It is forecasting an outcome rather than describing a change. Of course, one can imagine ways to reframe this. Increasingly pervasive and connected sensor networks are increasingly being applied to risk management.” Or something along those lines. A more blatant example of one driver framing: “vision of a world of autonomous nations working together to manage a global political economy based on a free market has begun to fray under the pressures of growing wealth inequality, a slowdown in global economic growth, the rise of online disinformation, and a need for a new global energy infrastructure.” This one would be more challenging to reframe as a driver and probably not worth the effort.
 ===Confusing drivers with inputs===
@@ Line 66: / Line 65: @@
 ===Defining Drivers in the Present===
+We’d avoid framing drivers in the past as well. For instance, “Employers continued reliance on traditional forms of education.” This doesn’t make it clear if the driver is still relevant, so we’d reframe in the present tense as: Employers are continuing to rely on traditional forms of education.
 The utility of framing in the present is two-fold:
   * Consistency makes it easier to understand
@@ Line 72: / Line 73: @@
 In this study, since we are talking about 2030-2060, it is understandable that the drivers are more like projections than a study set for the next ten years. Nonetheless, for the sake of consistency, we suggest keeping the drivers framed in the present and influencing the future.
+<span #categories_box>Category: {{tag>global_drivers_2030_2060}}</span>
 ~~DISCUSSION~~