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--- futures:global_drivers_2030_2060_project_overview [2023/06/28 12:54] – created davidpjonker
+++ futures:global_drivers_2030_2060_project_overview [2023/06/28 15:37] (current) – added links elizabethherfel
@@ Line 1: / Line 1: @@
 ====== Global Drivers 2030-2060 Overview ======
 ===== Objective =====
 The Global Drivers 2030-2060 identifies and analyzes the major drivers projected to influence change in the 2030-2060 timeframe. The focal question of this project was:
@@ Line 47: / Line 46: @@
 The PPEPSIII framework brings a more holistic and inclusive perspective for thinking about drivers in this case but can also be usefully applied to organizing any signals of change. In addition to ensuring a balanced set of drivers, it can also help to surface key tensions that exist among the major drivers, and stakeholder agendas, that dominate discussions of the 2030-2060 time horizon. For example:
-  * __Boundaries and standards of living:__ There is a clear tension between our efforts to live within planetary boundaries on the one hand and attempts to improve the human condition for billions on the other. Various forms of innovation are being pursued in order for humanity to exist within this band of sustainably prosperous living
-  * __Innovation and infrastructure constraints:__ This urgency to innovate on the one hand comes into tension with the constraints and limitations of society’s current infrastructures.
+  * __Boundaries and standards of living:__ There is a clear tension between our efforts to live within planetary boundaries on the one hand and attempts to improve the human condition for billions on the other. Various forms of innovation are being pursued in order for humanity to exist within this band of sustainably prosperous living. \\
-  * __Uneven development:__ Lastly, many tensions exist between the economic, political, and social systems that must all be modernized together in order to find collective success
+  * __Innovation and infrastructure constraints:__ This urgency to innovate on the one hand comes into tension with the constraints and limitations of society’s current infrastructures. \\
+  * __Uneven development:__ Lastly, many tensions exist between the economic, political, and social systems that must all be modernized together in order to find collective success. \\
 Below, we will show how we organized the drivers for this project into the PPEPSII framework.
@@ Line 64: / Line 65: @@
 The table below lists drivers by order of mentions (most mentions first; least is last).
-Table 1 List of Drivers
 | **Driver** | **# of mentions** | **Description** | **PPEPSIII category** |
-| 1. Technology acceleration | 44 | Technology's accelerating capabilities are influencing all aspects of life | Innovation |
+| 1. [[futures:technology_acceleration|Technology acceleration]] | 44 | Technology's accelerating capabilities are influencing all aspects of life | Innovation |
-| 2. Environmental actions growing | 30 | Green strategies and approaches are increasingly being applied across all sectors | Planet |
+| 2. [[futures:environmental_actions_growing|Environmental actions growing]] | 30 | Green strategies and approaches are increasingly being applied across all sectors | Planet |
-| 3. Population growth slowing (formerly "Demographics") | 30 | Population growth is slowing as population profiles are aging | People |
+| 3. [[futures:population_growth_slowing|Population growth slowing]] (formerly "Demographics") | 30 | Population growth is slowing as population profiles are aging | People |
-| 4. Climate change impacts | 29 | Climate change impacts are increasing, as is the urgency for responding  | Planet |
+| 4. [[futures:climate_change_impacts|Climate change impacts]] | 29 | Climate change impacts are increasing, as is the urgency for responding  | Planet |
-| 5. Conflict going unconventional (includes cybersecurity) | 27 | Conflict is shifting to non-state actors and unconventional means, including cyberwar | Political |
+| 5. [[futures:conflict_going_unconventonal|Conflict going unconventional]] (includes cybersecurity) | 27 | Conflict is shifting to non-state actors and unconventional means, including cyberwar | Political |
-| 6. Digitization | 26 | Digitization continues to expand and is increasingly ubiquitous  | Information |
+| 6. [[futures:digitization|Digitization]] | 26 | Digitization continues to expand and is increasingly ubiquitous  | Information |
-| 7. Energy increasingly renewable | 23 | Renewable energy use is growing due largely to climate concerns  | Planet |
+| 7. [[futures:energy_increasingly_available|Energy increasingly renewable]] | 23 | Renewable energy use is growing due largely to climate concerns  | Planet |
-| 8. Governance under pressure | 22 | Governance structures are facing growing pressure to evolve to align with an increasingly complex world | Political |
+| 8. [[futures:governance_under_pressure|Governance under pressure]] | 22 | Governance structures are facing growing pressure to evolve to align with an increasingly complex world | Political |
-| 9. Resource insecurities | 20	| Resource insecurities are proliferating across types and geographies | Planet |
+| 9. [[futures:resource_insecurities|Resource insecurities]] | 20	| Resource insecurities are proliferating across types and geographies | Planet |
-| 10. Globalization questions | 17 | Globalization and interconnectedness are continuing despite questions about its desirability | Economic |
+| 10. [[futures:globalization_questions|Globalization questions]] | 17 | Globalization and interconnectedness are continuing despite questions about its desirability | Economic |
-| 11. Healthcare equity struggles | 17 | Healthcare systems are often struggling to provide equitable access to amazing medical advances | Social |
+| 11. [[futures:healthcare_equity_struggles|Healthcare equity struggles]] | 17 | Healthcare systems are often struggling to provide equitable access to amazing medical advances | Social |
-| 12. Education access expanding | 16 | Educational access is generally expanding and incorporating technological approaches. | Social |
+| 12. [[futures:education_access_expanding|Education access expanding]] | 16 | Educational access is generally expanding and incorporating technological approaches. | Social |
-| 13. Urbanization | 15 | Urbanization continues to grow, widening the urban-rural gap | People |
+| 13. [[futures:urbanization|Urbanization]] | 15 | Urbanization continues to grow, widening the urban-rural gap | People |
-| 14. AI & Automation expanding | 14 | AI, automation, and robotics applications are expanding | Innovation |
+| 14. [[futures:ai_and_automation_expanding|AI & Automation expanding]] | 14 | AI, automation, and robotics applications are expanding | Innovation |
-| 15. Geopolitical instability | 13 | Geopolitical instability is increasing as a multi-polar world attempts to take shape | Political |
+| 15. [[futures:geopolitical_instability|Geopolitical instability]] | 13 | Geopolitical instability is increasing as a multi-polar world attempts to take shape | Political |
-| 16. Consumer expectations | 12 | Consumer expectations are expanding beyond convenience to personalization and luxury as their level of affluence grows | Social |
+| 16. [[futures:consumer_expectations|Consumer expectations]] | 12 | Consumer expectations are expanding beyond convenience to personalization and luxury as their level of affluence grows | Social |
-| 17. Cities smartening up | 11 | Cities are becoming smarter and more important contributors to economic growth | Infrastructure |
+| 17. [[futures:cities_smartening_up|Cities smartening up]] | 11 | Cities are becoming smarter and more important contributors to economic growth | Infrastructure |
-| 18. Social media and fragmentation | 11 | Social media increasing viewed as contributing to social fragmentation | Social |
+| 18. [[futures:social_media_and_fragmentation|Social media and fragmentation]] | 11 | Social media increasing viewed as contributing to social fragmentation | Social |
-| 19. Data proliferation | 8 | Data is increasingly available and used in decision-making, accompanied by privacy concerns | Information |
+| 19. [[futures:data_proliferation|Data proliferation]] | 8 | Data is increasingly available and used in decision-making, accompanied by privacy concerns | Information |
-| 20. Transportation automating and integrating | 8 | Transportation is slowing becoming more automated and integrated | Infrastructure |
+| 20. [[futures:transportation_automating_and_integrating|Transportation automating and integrating]] | 8 | Transportation is slowing becoming more automated and integrated | Infrastructure |
-| 21. Economic growth a priority | 7 | Economic growth continues to be a priority | Economic |
+| 21. [[futures:economic_growth_a_priority|Economic growth a priority]] | 7 | Economic growth continues to be a priority | Economic |
-| 22. Food security concerns | 7 | Food security concerns are growing as arable land is shrinking | Social |
+| 22. [[futures:food_security_concerns|Food security concerns]] | 7 | Food security concerns are growing as arable land is shrinking | Social |
-| 23. Migration continues | 7 | Migration is increasing, driven by climate change and conflict. | People |
+| 23. [[futures:migration_continues|Migration continues]] | 7 | Migration is increasing, driven by climate change and conflict. | People |
-| 24. Electrification | 6 | Electrification of power supply and transportation is increasing | Infrastructure |
+| 24. [[futures:electrification|Electrification]] | 6 | Electrification of power supply and transportation is increasing | Infrastructure |
-| 25. Inequality | 6 | Inequality continues to grow | Economic |
+| 25. [[futures:inequality|Inequality]] | 6 | Inequality continues to grow | Economic |
-| 26. Skill gaps | 6 | Skill and talent gaps are generally increasing | Economic |
+| 26. [[futures:skill_gaps|Skill gaps]] | 6 | Skill and talent gaps are generally increasing | Economic |
-| 27. Work going virtual | 5 | Work is shifting to virtual, which is enabling new structures and approaches | Innovation |
+| 27. [[futures:work_going_virtual|Work going virtual]] | 5 | Work is shifting to virtual, which is enabling new structures and approaches | Innovation |
+Table 1: List of 27 Global Drivers
 ==== Drivers by PPEPSIII ====
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 The drivers are distributed fairly evenly across the PPEPSIII framework.
+{{ global_drivers_2030_2060_by_ppepsiii.png?400 }}
+Figure 1: Global drivers by PPEPSIII category
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 By being super inclusive – which makes sense given the open foresight nature of the project - perhaps half the 677 candidate drivers were, upon further analysis, not really drivers, but we carried them through the total process, which absorbed a lot of the team’s time and energy. If we screened them out early, this would have saved a lot of time later on. On the other hand, even though the process might have been inefficient, it did force the team to really dig and clarify just what we collectively thought a driver was.
+<span #categories_box> Categories: {{tag>global_drivers_2030_2060}} </span>
 ~~DISCUSSION~~