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futures:population_growth_slowing [2023/06/06 17:17] – sarah.wheelerfutures:population_growth_slowing [2023/06/07 18:13] (current) – sarah.wheeler
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 ======Population Growth Slowing====== ======Population Growth Slowing======
 =====Summary===== =====Summary=====
-Across most of the world populations are aging. The slowing of population growth is a massively significant driver that ends a long boom. Just a generation ago, there was much concern and hand-wringing about how overpopulation would overwhelm carrying capacity. This concern was well-placed in that it has come true to a degree, but population growth has been managed more successfully than most thought possible. The people or demographic story now shifts from quantity to quality. A consequence of the slower growth is that the population profile is aging, which puts some pressure on the economic and healthcare systems so it’s not just the fact that we have aging populations, but how those populations are aging. Healthcare innovations intensify the effects of our aging populations, they’re living longer and generally experiencing a greater quality of life.  +Across the world, populations are aging, marking a significant shift from previous concerns about overpopulation. While managing population growth more successfully than anticipated, we now face the challenge of addressing the implications of aging populations. The demographic story has transitioned from focusing on quantity to quality. The aging population profile puts pressure on economic and healthcare systems, necessitating a thoughtful approach to how we adapt. Healthcare innovations have led to longer life expectancy and improved quality of life, but they also intensify the impact of aging populations. This shift in demographics affects the economy, with longer retirement years requiring changes to savings and tax systems. Vulnerable pension and social security systems may prompt migration patterns as individuals seek cities with lower tax burdens. The location choices of aging populations will influence various aspects of society, such as social systems, infrastructure, transportation, mobility, and consumption. Preparing for these changes requires collaboration among communities, governments, and industries to adapt infrastructure and business practices accordingly. However, it's essential to strike a balance between meeting the needs of an aging society and ensuring a capable workforce, as both require resources that may be in competition. Failing to adequately support the education, development, and employment opportunities of younger cohorts can lead to increased vulnerabilities and social tensions within societies.
-Aging populations participate in the economy in different ways; as life expectancy has increased, so too has the number of years people spend in retirement. Extending retirement years means how we think about saving and our tax bases need to change. With limited incomes and increasingly vulnerable pension and social security systems, aging populations will be more in-tuned with how taxes impact their finances, and we could see increased migration patterns in relation to tax-burdened cities. Where these populations ultimately reside will impact social systems, the build environment, transport, mobility, consumption, and more. Communities, governments, and industries need to prepare to adapt infrastructure and business practices to meet the changing needs. Adjusting to the changing needs of an aging society will require resources that may be in competition with the resources needed to ensure a capable workforce, so striking a balance between the needs of these groups will be a challenge.  +
- +
-The changing opportunity landscapes associated with aging populations can also drive migration across the younger cohorts as they seek economic and social opportunities away from home. If we’re unable to adequately support their education, development, and employment we increase the vulnerabilities of our societies and increase the potential for tension and unrest. +
  
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 ====Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry==== ====Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry====
-[[library:future_scenarios_and_implications_for_the_industry|Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry]] by [[encyclopedia:world_economic_forum|World Economic Forum]]+[[library:future_scenarios_and_implications_for_the_industry|Future Scenarios and Implications for the Industry]] by [[encyclopedia:world_economic_forum|World Economic Forum]] presents three potential future scenarios and their implications for industries: 1.) Building in a virtual world; 2.) Factories run the world; 3.) A green reboot. These scenarios explore different paths of technological advancement, social changes, and environmental challenges. The report highlights the significant impact that changing demographics will have on various industries, including shifts in consumer behavior, workforce dynamics, and market demands. It emphasizes the need for businesses to anticipate and adapt to demographic changes in order to remain competitive and sustainable in the future.
  
 ====The Future of Immigration: Four Paths==== ====The Future of Immigration: Four Paths====
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 ====Emerging Economies: demographic change==== ====Emerging Economies: demographic change====
-[[library:emerging_economies_demographic_change|Emerging economies: demographic change]] by [[encyclopedia:uk_government_office_for_science|UK Government Office for Science]]+[[library:emerging_economies_demographic_change|Emerging economies: demographic change]] by [[encyclopedia:uk_government_office_for_science|UK Government Office for Science]] focuses on the demographic changes occurring in emerging economies and their potential implications. It highlights the significant growth of the middle class and urban populations, as well as aging populations and increasing life expectancy. These demographic shifts are expected to create both opportunities and challenges for businesses and governments, requiring strategic planning and adaptation to leverage the potential economic benefits while addressing the social and economic implications of these changes.
  
 ====Driving forces cards 2035==== ====Driving forces cards 2035====
-[[library:driving_forces_2035_cards|Driving Forces 2035 Cards]] [[library:driving_forces_cards_2035|Driving Forces Cards 2035]] by [[encyclopedia:singapore_government_centre_for_strategic_futures|Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures]]+[[library:driving_forces_cards_2035|Driving Forces 2035 Cards]] by [[encyclopedia:singapore_government_centre_for_strategic_futures|Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures]] provides a series of concise and informative cards that highlight key concepts and insights. These cards cover various topics such as strategic foresight, emerging technologies, global trends, and security challenges. Aging populations are a theme throughout.
  
 ====Future of Government in 2030==== ====Future of Government in 2030====
-[[library:future_of_government_in_2030|Future of Government in 2030]] by [[encyclopedia:erepublic|e.Republic]]+[[library:future_of_government_in_2030|Future of Government in 2030]] by [[encyclopedia:erepublic|e.Republic]] is a series of short essays compiling the thoughts of over two dozen futurists. One of which sees governments facing the challenge of adapting to aging populations. This will involve reevaluating the mix of services provided, accommodating the needs of retirees, and addressing changes in tax bases as individuals relocate to areas with lower taxes and more favorable climates. Governments will need to find ways to deliver services efficiently while making difficult decisions about service reductions.
  
 ====GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society==== ====GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society====
-[[library:gao_20182023_strategic_plan_trends_affecting_government_and_society|GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society]] by [[encyclopedia:us_government_accountability_office|US Government Accountability Office]]+[[library:gao_20182023_strategic_plan_trends_affecting_government_and_society|GAO 2018-2023 Strategic Plan: Trends Affecting Government and Society]] by [[encyclopedia:us_government_accountability_office|US Government Accountability Office]] is a study on the challenges faced by the federal government in managing and overseeing cybersecurity risks. A section of the report on "Changes in people and society" looks at current knowledge, key uncertainties, current positioning, and implications of aging populations.
  
 ====Future of Highways==== ====Future of Highways====
-[[library:future_of_highways|Future of Highways]] by [[encyclopedia:arup|ARUP]]+[[library:future_of_highways|Future of Highways]] by [[encyclopedia:arup|ARUP]] examines the future of mobility and transport infrastructure. It identifies 'A growing and aging population' as a megatrend with global implications for the future of highways. By 2050, the global population is projected to reach approximately 9.5 billion, with varying population trends across regions. Aging populations in countries like Russia, Japan, and Germany will lead to population decline, while explosive growth is expected in some parts of the developing world, particularly in cities. The shift towards an older population will impact mobility solutions, as older generations may have different needs and preferences. 
  
 ====Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies==== ====Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies====
-[[library:review_of_how_science_and_technology_could_contribute_to_better_energy_management_in_the_future_futures_studies|Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies]] by UK Government Office for Science+[[library:review_of_how_science_and_technology_could_contribute_to_better_energy_management_in_the_future_futures_studies|Review of how science and technology could contribute to better energy management in the future: futures studies]] by the UK Government Office for Science reviewed existing futures studies surrounding energy issues. The various studies found similarities in the social factors and trends that influence energy consumption. Population and lifestyles/values were identified as the primary drivers of energy usage. The studies discussed the expected population growth in developing regions and the anticipated decline in developed regions. Additionally, the impact of urbanization, demographics, and land use on energy consumption was examined across multiple studies.
  
 ====Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments==== ====Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments====
-[[library:future_state_2030_the_global_megatrends_shaping_governments|Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments]] by +[[library:future_state_2030_the_global_megatrends_shaping_governments|Future State 2030: The global megatrends shaping governments]] by [[encyclopedia:kpmg_international|KPMG International]] and the Mowat Centre examines global megatrends likely to impact the public and private sectors through 2030, and delves into the megatrends' implications for governments. One of these megatrends is 'demographics'.
  
 ====Exploring Europe’s capability requirements for 2035 and beyond==== ====Exploring Europe’s capability requirements for 2035 and beyond====
-[[library:exploring_europes_capability_requirements_for_2035_and_beyond|Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond]] by [[encyclopedia:rand|RAND]]+[[library:exploring_europes_capability_requirements_for_2035_and_beyond|Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond]] by [[encyclopedia:rand|RAND]] for the European Defense Agency aims to address defense and military challenges in Europe over the long-term. It highlights social factors that could contribute to unrest and conflict, such as:  
 +  * "Increased age disparities, including an ageing global population but growth of youth populations and youth unemployment in certain regions." 
 +  * "Population decline in Europe, but slight growth in the rest of the world."
  
 ====Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region’s Potential==== ====Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region’s Potential====
-[[library:central_asia_2050_unleashing_the_regions_potential|Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential]] by [[encyclopedia:centennial_group_international|Centennial Group International]]+[[library:central_asia_2050_unleashing_the_regions_potential|Central Asia 2050: Unleashing the Region's Potential]] by [[encyclopedia:centennial_group_international|Centennial Group International]] highlights the potential and challenges faced by Central Asia, emphasizing the importance of the region's historical openness and trade connections. It presents an aspirational vision for 2050, envisioning widespread prosperity and improved social indicators comparable to South Korea and Central Europe. The book identifies key areas for development, including energy, agriculture, manufacturing, human development, climate change, market integration, and governance, with water resources management being a significant challenge. One of the drivers identified relates to demographic transitions.
  
  
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-=====Discussion=====+~~DISCUSSION~~
 =====Further Reading===== =====Further Reading=====
 +<span #categories_box> Categories:  </span>
 =====Citations===== =====Citations=====
 /* Do not add anything below this line, footnotes will automatically generate below */ /* Do not add anything below this line, footnotes will automatically generate below */
Last modified: 2023/06/06 17:17 by sarah.wheeler