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library:emerging_economies_demographic_change [2023/06/03 21:10] – created - external edit 127.0.0.1library:emerging_economies_demographic_change [2024/02/13 04:19] (current) – davidpjonker
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 ======Emerging economies: demographic change====== ======Emerging economies: demographic change======
- 
 Excerpt from report: \\ Excerpt from report: \\
 "This paper follows an action from the CSAG in June 2013 to produce “a short paper by a Community of Interest on how government expects demographic change to impact on different emerging Economic Powers and the effects of this on their development trajectories”. ... This paper will examine the impact of demographic change on Emerging Markets (EMs), rather than Emerging Powers (EPs). This is to focus the paper on economic issues, rather than on more complex and sensitive political dimensions."  \\ "This paper follows an action from the CSAG in June 2013 to produce “a short paper by a Community of Interest on how government expects demographic change to impact on different emerging Economic Powers and the effects of this on their development trajectories”. ... This paper will examine the impact of demographic change on Emerging Markets (EMs), rather than Emerging Powers (EPs). This is to focus the paper on economic issues, rather than on more complex and sensitive political dimensions."  \\
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 | Authors:  |  | | Authors:  |  |
 | Time horizon:  | 2046 - 2050    | | Time horizon:  | 2046 - 2050    |
-| Geographic focus:  |global   |+|Geographic focus:  |Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Saudi_Arabia, South_Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela, Vietnam   |
 | Page count:  |9  | | Page count:  |9  |
  
 =====Methods===== =====Methods=====
- +The research method involved analyzing demographic projections from the United Nations and economic forecasts from The Economist Intelligence Unit to estimate the impact of changes in labor supply on GDP growth. It also considered different fertility scenarios to assess the range of possible demographic outcomes for emerging markets.
-This quote in Scope makes me think they did environmental scanning but I"m not confident... "This note considers the prospects of 21 EMs1 , which are not drawn from any existing list, and are characterised as emerging based on their current and projected GDP and population, as well as GDP per Capita."\\ +
-  * Quantitative methods used +
-  * Exploratory in nature +
  
 =====Key Insights===== =====Key Insights=====
 +The research paper examines how demographic changes will affect 21 emerging markets (EMs) in terms of economic growth, labor supply, dependency ratios, societal challenges, and poverty. It uses GDP and population projections to assess the potential impact on these economies up to 2050. The paper highlights the varying growth rates and demographic shifts across EMs, with a focus on labor supply's contribution to GDP growth and the challenges of aging populations, particularly in China and India. It also discusses the implications of demographic changes on society and poverty, noting the risk of civil unrest if job growth does not keep pace with labor supply or if growth does not translate into poverty reduction.
  
 Drivers mentioned include:   Drivers mentioned include:  
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 =====Additional Viewpoints===== =====Additional Viewpoints=====
 <!-- Insert instructions for additional viewpoints --> <!-- Insert instructions for additional viewpoints -->
- +<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2014_publication_year}} |  {{tag>2040s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2046_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2050_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2050s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>Bangladesh_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Brazil_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>China_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Colombia_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Egypt_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>India_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Indonesia_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Iran_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Mexico_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Morocco_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Nigeria_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Pakistan_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Peru_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Philippines_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Russia_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Saudi_Arabia_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>South_Africa_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Thailand_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Turkey_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Venezuela_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>Vietnam_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>demographic_change}} |  {{tag>economic_growth}} |  {{tag>emerging_markets}} |    {{tag>fertility_scenarios}} |  {{tag>gdp_projections}} |  {{tag>labor_supply}} |  {{tag>population_projections}} |  {{tag>poverty}} |  {{tag>society}}   </span>  
-<span #categories_box> Categories:  {{tag>2014_publication_year}} |  {{tag>2040s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2046_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2050_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>2050s_time_horizon}} |  {{tag>English_publication_language}} |  {{tag>demographics}} |  {{tag>economics}} |  {{tag>employment}} |  {{tag>global_geographic_scope}} |  {{tag>jobs}}   </span>  +
  
  
 ~~DISCUSSION~~ ~~DISCUSSION~~
  
Last modified: 2023/06/03 21:10 by 127.0.0.1