Geopolitical instability is increasing as a multi-polar world attempts to take shape. Tensions between the US and China are growing. China is building power on the global stage while the US experiences a relative decline. There is increasing anxiety that US-China tensions will escalate into outright conflict. In the absence of a clear leader, other nations are hedging their bets and seeking greater autonomy. Countries around the world are struggling with political fragmentation, public mistrust, rising nationalism, and eroding legitimacy. Powers that were once the purview of national governments are increasingly being undermined by sub-national governments, private organizations, and non-state actors.
Chaos or Connection? The Global Media and Information Landscape in 2035 by Global Governance Futures analyzes the future of media and information landscape until 2035. It explores how emerging technologies like AI, virtual reality, and blockchain will impact media consumption and distribution, leading to a fragmented media landscape. Key uncertainites for 2035 include: decline of the nation-state, nationalism and populism, geopolitical balance between states, and mistrust.
A World Reaching Inflection Point by Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures provides an overview of five themes that they believe will shape Singapore government's operating context in 2040. One of these themes is power and influence are mutable. The nature of power and influence between state is evolving, and new ideals, entities, and institutions may arise as a result.
Driving Forces 2035 Cards Singapore Government Centre for Strategic Futures is a set of cards intended to spark conversation about key forces of change that will impact Sinapore's operating enviornment over the next 20 years. One of these cards, changing global order describes the future development paths and changing relationships between powers that will determine a new global order. Another card, national identity, questions how the growing presence of immigrants and foreign nationals will impact singapore's national identity.
Geostrategic Cluster Findings - The Future of Asia: Implications for Canada by Policy Horizons Canada explores the potential future challenges and opportunities for Canada in the next 50 years. It discusses key trends such as shifting demographics, technological advancements, and environmental changes that will shape the country's social, economic, and political landscape. From state failure to regional instability describes a growing risk of state collapse and lawlessness that could cause major disruption in the region and draw major powers into conflict. Additionally, Asia's role in altering the military balance covers an increase in military spending in the region and a perceived relative decline of U.S. influence. Asia's shifting regional architecture covers efforts to build pan-Asian institutions and foster integration. Competing norms and interest in regional trade discusses a shift in trade norms that result in a more complex web of trade agreements.
2022 Strategic Foresight Report by European Commission presents a strategic reflection on the interactions between the green and digital transitions against a new geopolitical backdrop. Russia's military aggression against Ukraine has long=term implications in energy, food, economics, security, defense, and geopolitics that will impact Europe's path to achiving green and energy transitions.
Scenarios for the Russian Federation by World Economic Forumoutlines three scenarios for the future of Russia's economic landscape: regional re-balancing, precarious stability, and beyond complacency. Some of the drivers and global trends used to create these scenarios include: elite cohesion, the institutional environment, adequacy of physical infrastructure, and social cohesion.
The Future of Asia: Forces of Change and Potential Surprises by Policy Horizons Canada examines the potential future trends and challenges that Canada may face in the next 10-15 years. It explores various topics including technological advancements, climate change, demographic shifts, and geopolitical dynamics. One of the drivers, security covers potential disruptions from historically rooted disputes and emerging technologies. Border disputes, rising nationalism, fundamentalism, and cyber-security are brought up as constraints to Asia's economic development.
Global Foresight 2022 by Atlantic Council examines three scenarios and their implications on global trends and challenges.
Cold War II, with a twist A World Transformed by Climate Shocks A Democratic Resistance
The scenarios are shaped by 10 trends, which include: A Middle-power balancing act against a bipolar world, Europes’ Quest for Strategic Autonomy, An emerging Asia-Pacific Hedging Strategy, and Meet the world order 2.0.
==== The Future of Immigration: Four Paths ====The Future of Immigration: Four Paths
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