2021 STRATEGIC FORESIGHT REPORT: The EU’s capacity and freedom to act

The 2021 Strategic Foresight Report outlines a forward-looking perspective on the EU's capacity and freedom to act in the coming decades, based on expert-led foresight processes. It identifies global trends, uncertainties, and choices that will shape Europe's future, emphasizing structural trends such as climate change, technological transformations, challenges to democracy, and shifts in the global order and demography.

The report outlines ten areas where the EU can enhance its open strategic autonomy and global leadership, stressing that ambitious choices aligned with EU values and interests are crucial for its future capacity and freedom to act. This builds upon the 2020 report, which introduced resilience as a guiding principle for EU policymaking.

“It builds on the 2020 Strategic Foresight Report, which introduced resilience as a new compass for EU policymaking.” (pg 3)

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“The foresight process included consultations with Member States and discussions with partners in the European Strategy and Policy Analysis System, a literature review, Delphi survey (involving Commission services, the European External Action Service and relevant stakeholders from academia, industry, civil society, public administration and international institutions) and scenario building. In addition, the ongoing work on the resilience dashboards, as well as other foresight activities helped inform the analysis of the EU’s open strategic autonomy.” (pg 17)

The report discusses four global trends:

1. Climate change and other environmental challenges
Climate change has globally impacted regions, heading toward 1.5°C in two decades and possibly reaching 2°C by 2050. This leads to more extreme weather events, water and food scarcity, and sea level rise, displacing millions annually. By 2050, 200 million people might need humanitarian aid yearly due to climate-related disasters. Europe faces water stress, potential conflicts, and agricultural vulnerabilities. Biodiversity loss, nitrogen cycle changes, and environmental degradation pose economic threats. The link between climate change, biodiversity loss, and public health increases the risk of pandemics, antimicrobial resistance, and other diseases, amplifying challenges globally.

2. Digital hyperconnectivity and technological transformations
The EU aims for technological sovereignty, emphasizing human-centered knowledge and technology. Despite being a global leader in research, it lags in private investment compared to some competitors. Breakthrough innovations in advanced manufacturing, AI, and quantum technologies are crucial for competitiveness. Hyperconnectivity, with the potential for 200 billion connected devices by 2030, poses challenges like cyber threats and job automation, requiring adaptation of skills. The digital transition, if unaddressed, may lead to social rights erosion, increased inequalities, and environmental concerns like e-waste.

3. Pressure on democratic models of governance and values
The EU faces global challenges as democratic governance declines worldwide, exacerbated by the pandemic. In 2020, political rights and civil liberties declined globally for the 15th consecutive year. Geopolitical tensions, hybrid tools, and disinformation pose threats. The EU's ability to adapt and remain resilient is crucial, especially with persistent zones of instability and conflicts near its borders. Disinformation, driven by online platforms, threatens democracies and could polarize debates, risking health, security, and the environment.

4. Shifts in the global order and demography
The world's population is projected to reach 8.5 billion by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050, with varying growth rates across regions. Europe faces demographic decline, while Africa's population is expected to surge. Shifts in global power are evident, with the economic center moving eastward. China is poised to become the largest economy, and the USA-China competition may define geopolitics. The energy transition will impact power dynamics, favoring renewable energy exporters. The multipolar global order brings increased rivalry, fragility, and security threats. Global governance risks fragmentation amid intensified geopolitical rivalries, creating a complex and interconnected landscape.

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The remaining pages of the report then explore 10 strategic priorities summarized below…

(directly quoted from page 31 of report)

1. Ensuring sustainable and resilient health and food systems
“Building a European Health Union that invests in health workers, innovative care models, new tech and prevention. Safeguarding resilient and sustainable food system through innovation and biotech.”

2. Securing decarbonised and affordable energy
“Securing a sufficient supply of decarbonised and affordable energy for the twin transitions, without creating new dependencies.”

3. Strengthening capacity in data management, artificial intelligence and cutting edge technologies
“Ensuring digital sovereignty and promoting values via financing, developing and producing of next generation tech, and building capacity to store, extract and process data.”

4. Securing and diversifying supply of critical raw materials
“Pursuing a smart mix of R&I, industrial and trade policies, matched with international partnerships, to guarantee the supply of critical raw materials.”

5. Ensuring first-mover global position in standard-setting
“Leveraging strengths and experience to secure a first-mover position in standard setting thereby promoting values and a level playing field for businesses.”

6. Building resilient and future-proof economic and financial systems
“Strengthening the international role of the euro and the financial system’s ability to drive innovation and absorb shocks in the context of the twin transitions and developing the digital euro.”

7. Developing and retaining skills and talents matching EU ambitions
“Promoting training and education policies that empower Europeans to navigate the transitions, while retaining and attracting talent.”

8. Strengthening security and defence capacities and access to space
“Joining forces and developing capacity to anticipate and respond, if need be on its own, to evolving threats in security and defence. Ensuring access to space and acknowledging space infrastructure as strategic.”

9. Working with global partners to promote peace, security and prosperity for all
“Jointly adapting multilateralism to a changing reality, strengthening coalitions with like-minded partners, pursuing issue-based cooperation on key interests, acting assertively to counter external coercion and protect EU values and interests.”

10. Strengthening the resilience of institutions
“Adapting democratic institutions to strengthen their resilience and capacity to anticipate change, also through foresight, and deliver on the promise of freedom, equality and wellbeing for all.”