A Distilled View of Life to 2030

A Distilled View of Life to 2030 provides a view of the major driving forces shaping the next decade. It highlights the declining economic weight of the old industrial world (OIW) and the rise of emerging economies. Economic responses include upgrading human resources, automation (AI), and innovation. Socially, there are increasing divisions in the OIW, with challenges to the existing social model. The emerging economies may have different attitudes, leading to further divides. Energy provision and environmental concerns are crucial, while food supply is unlikely to be an issue. The text emphasizes the potential for both positive advancements and potential disasters resulting from societal shifts.

The research method includes a review of global structural forces, economic analysis, demographic studies, and socio-political commentary. It synthesizes existing knowledge and trends to project future outcomes.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report by The Challenge Network synthesizes insights into the driving forces that will shape the next decade, without offering specific scenarios. It begins by examining global structural forces and their economic implications for wealthy nations, intertwined with the fate of emerging economies. The report critiques the hyperbolic narrative surrounding the 'fourth industrial revolution' and artificial intelligence, suggesting that while the term is overused, rapid change is undeniable, driven largely by forces outside the traditional industrial world.

The old industrial world (OIW) is experiencing demographic challenges and a shrinking share of global output, projected to fall significantly by 2040. The report highlights the doubling of the world's workforce and graduate numbers, with emerging economies soon to surpass the OIW in graduate population.

In response to global pressures, the OIW can only remain competitive through human resource upgrades, automation, and innovation. However, the potential for upgrading human capacity is uncertain. Automation, involving AI, could lead to semi-sentient organizations and augment individual abilities. Innovation is likely to thrive in urban clusters and networks of organizations, fostering a world of elite cities.

Socially, the OIW faces increasing division, with low and middle-class wages stagnating or falling, while high-skilled individuals earn more. The post-war social model is under strain, and national solidarity is weakening, particularly among professional classes who identify more with their global peers than with fellow nationals. Emerging economies, with growing middle classes, show little interest in democracy or wealth redistribution, which could reshape global narratives.

Populist politics are on the rise, driven by inequality and rapid change. The report also discusses the potential for worker unionization in emerging economies, which could lead to political upheaval.

The report concludes that while energy, food supply, and environmental concerns will not be major forces within the next decade, technology and institutional improvements will amplify billions of intelligent minds. The future for the less able in the rich world is uncertain, and populist attempts to revert to post-war norms could lead to disaster. The report suggests that majoritarian democracy may not remain the dominant model through the century.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | emerging economies | automation | democracy | demographics | economic development | economic implications | energy provision | environmental concerns | global structural forces | innovation | populism | social division