Africa's current and future stability
This report analyzes Africa's conflict burden within a global context, using data from key datasets to assess trends in violence and instability. It examines historical patterns, recent increases in armed violence, and the nature of political armed violence in Africa, particularly non-state conflicts. The paper also explores potential future impacts of changes in Africa's development and security prospects, modeling three scenarios: a Base Case, an African Renaissance, and a Politics of the Belly scenario. The research draws from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) and considers implications for economic growth, poverty, and development.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | institute for security studies (iss), Institute for Security Studies |
| Authors: | Steve Hedden, Jakkie Cilliers |
| Time horizon: | 2063 |
| Geographic focus: | Africa |
| Page count: | 24 pages |
Methods
The research method includes a review of historical data on conflict and fatalities, analysis of recent trends in political violence using ACLED data, and scenario modeling using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting system. The scenarios are based on different assumptions about governance and global context, projecting potential outcomes for Africa's development trajectory up to the year 2063.
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Key Insights
The research employs a combination of historical data analysis and scenario modeling to understand trends in political violence and armed conflict in Africa. It uses data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) to provide a detailed picture of the increases in social instability and protests since 2010. The paper also models the implications of increased or decreased levels of armed violence on Africa's economic growth and development, presenting three alternative future scenarios: Base Case, African Renaissance, and Politics of the Belly.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2060s time horizon | 2063 | 2063 time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | africa | african development | african futures | african renaissance | armed violence | conflict | conflict trends | development | economic growth | economy | foreign affairs | governance | growth | innovation | political violence | politics | poverty | protests | regions | research | security | social instability | terrorism