Economic Effects of Peak Oil

This paper analyzes the economic impact of peak oil and subsequent oil shortages on global economies, focusing on price effects and GDP changes.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method involves model-based scenario analysis using the global macroeconomic model GINFORS. This model matches global oil demand with supply by adjusting oil prices and incorporates technological potentials for energy efficiency and renewable energy that are not forecastable using econometric methods.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research explores the economic consequences of a potential peak in global oil production and the resulting supply shortages. It employs scenario analysis to predict how a sharp rise in oil prices could affect various sectors in Germany and other major economies, including the U.S., Japan, China, OPEC countries, and Russia. The study finds that oil price increases could have significant impacts on GDP, comparable to the 2008/09 financial crises. While oil-exporting countries may benefit from higher prices, oil-importing nations could suffer adverse effects. The research suggests that energy efficiency measures and a shift to renewable energy could mitigate the vulnerability to oil price shocks.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: 2020 time horizon | 2020s time horizon | China geographic scope | English publication language | Germany geographic scope | Global geographic scope | Japan geographic scope | Opec geographic scope | Russia geographic scope | United States geographic scope | economic impact | economic oil price effects | energy efficiency | futures | gdp | global economies | global energy-economy-environment model. | oil demand | oil price | oil supply | peak oil | renewable energy | scenario analysis