Emerging economies: demographic change
Excerpt from report:
“This paper follows an action from the CSAG in June 2013 to produce “a short paper by a Community of Interest on how government expects demographic change to impact on different emerging Economic Powers and the effects of this on their development trajectories”. … This paper will examine the impact of demographic change on Emerging Markets (EMs), rather than Emerging Powers (EPs). This is to focus the paper on economic issues, rather than on more complex and sensitive political dimensions.”
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | UK Government Office for Science |
| Publication date: | December 18, 2014 |
| Authors: | |
| Time horizon: | 2046 - 2050 |
| Geographic focus: | Bangladesh, Brazil, China, Colombia, Egypt, India, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Morocco, Nigeria, Pakistan, Peru, Philippines, Russia, Saudi_Arabia, South_Africa, Thailand, Turkey, Venezuela, Vietnam |
| Page count: | 9 |
Methods
The research method involved analyzing demographic projections from the United Nations and economic forecasts from The Economist Intelligence Unit to estimate the impact of changes in labor supply on GDP growth. It also considered different fertility scenarios to assess the range of possible demographic outcomes for emerging markets.
Key Insights
The research paper examines how demographic changes will affect 21 emerging markets (EMs) in terms of economic growth, labor supply, dependency ratios, societal challenges, and poverty. It uses GDP and population projections to assess the potential impact on these economies up to 2050. The paper highlights the varying growth rates and demographic shifts across EMs, with a focus on labor supply's contribution to GDP growth and the challenges of aging populations, particularly in China and India. It also discusses the implications of demographic changes on society and poverty, noting the risk of civil unrest if job growth does not keep pace with labor supply or if growth does not translate into poverty reduction.
Drivers mentioned include:
- China's population
- labour supply
- Education
- Employment
- Poverty
- Income inequality
- India's population
- productivity improvements
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2014 publication year | 2040s time horizon | 2046 time horizon | 2050 time horizon | 2050s time horizon | English publication language | Bangladesh geographic scope | Brazil geographic scope | China geographic scope | Colombia geographic scope | Egypt geographic scope | India geographic scope | Indonesia geographic scope | Iran geographic scope | Mexico geographic scope | Morocco geographic scope | Nigeria geographic scope | Pakistan geographic scope | Peru geographic scope | Philippines geographic scope | Russia geographic scope | Saudi Arabia geographic scope | South Africa geographic scope | Thailand geographic scope | Turkey geographic scope | Venezuela geographic scope | Vietnam geographic scope | demographic change | economic growth | emerging markets | fertility scenarios | gdp projections | labor supply | population projections | poverty | society