Exploring europe's capability requirements for 2035 and beyond

Excerpt from report:
“This study was commissioned by the European Defence Agency (EDA) in response to the invitation to tender No.16.CPS.OP.186.

Insights from the 2018 update of the long-term strand of the Capability Development Plan

This short publication provides a summary of key findings of this analysis, offering an insight into the CDP process and some of the strategic challenges facing European societies, militaries and industry up to 2035+.”

• A mix of quantitative and qualitative methods used

Drivers mentioned include:

• Increased age disparities, including an ageing global population but growth of youth populations and youth unemployment in certain regions.
• Population decline in Europe, but slight growth in the rest of the world.
• Polarisation of society.
• Urbanisation, including growth of megacities.
• Empowerment of individuals.
• Reduced trust in government.
• International and internal migration.
• Population concentration in coastal areas.
• Acceleration in the development and use of new technologies.
• Democratisation of technology by emerging powers and non-state actors.
• Civilian and 'dual-use' industries as drivers of innovation, with benefits to military.
• More tools to address social, economic, environmental and military challenges.
• New vulnerabilities, particularly around cybersecurity.
• More capabilities for adversaries.
• Impact of technology on social, cultural, political, ethical and legal norms.
• Continuous economic globalisation, if not without opposition or discontent.
• Decline of cohesion and economic power of the West.
• Rise of emerging economies.
• Increased inequalities.
• Increased costs of the welfare society.
• Impact of new technology on employment, skills and economic opportunity.
• Increased range and scale of impacts from climate change.
• Pollution effects.
• Increased vulnerabilities to pandemic diseases.
• Increased risk of floods and desertification.
• Stresses on resources, such as food, water and energy.
• Competition for agricultural land and raw materials.
• Exploitation of space and pressure on other global commons.
• Decreased role of the state as the main security provider.
• Outsourced military functions.
• Cities increasingly players in their own right.
• Increased importance of Non Governmental Organisations (NGOs), multinational companies, private security and military companies, media, individuals and international organisations.
• Continued need to work through alliances, partnerships and networks.
• Universal and timeless nature of war.
• Unpredictable and constantly changing character of war and conflict.
• Blurring of lines between conventional, unconventional and asymmetric warfare.
• Blurring of lines between war and peace.
• Increase in wars by proxy.
• All physical and virtual domains likely to be utilised, with actors switching across domains to gain advantages. Conflict in densely populated or restricted terrains, such as urban environments.
• Changing pace and focus of technological innovation
• Enabling technologies

Categories: english_publication_language | military | military_strategy | military_technology | other_geographic_scope | strategy