Exploring the Tariff Outlook under Trump 2.0

The report examines the potential impact of Trump's second administration on global trade, focusing on tariffs and their implications for Southeast Asia, particularly in relation to China and trade imbalances.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Quick Facts
Report location:	source source 2
Language:	English
Publisher:	S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies
Authors:	Kevin Chen Xian An
Geographic focus:	Southeast Asia, United States, China

Methods

The research employs a commentary analysis method, examining the implications of Trump's tariff policies on global trade, particularly focusing on Southeast Asia's economic strategies and challenges.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Key Insights

The report explores the potential trade policies under Trump's second administration, emphasizing his continued fascination with tariffs as both a negotiating tool and a means to address trade imbalances. Trump's approach could lead to a broader and more intense trade war, affecting not only China but also other countries, including allies. Southeast Asian countries, which previously benefited from manufacturers relocating from China, may face challenges due to increased scrutiny and the risk of being labeled as engaging in “Southeast Asia-washing.” The report highlights the potential for retaliatory measures from US trade partners, which could create a more challenging environment for trade-dependent countries in the region. Trump's belief in tariffs as a solution to complex issues, such as trade imbalances and the hollowing out of the US manufacturing base, is examined, alongside skepticism about their effectiveness. The report underscores the need for Southeast Asian leaders to navigate this turbulent environment cautiously, as opportunities for attracting investments remain but are accompanied by greater risks.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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