Future flooding: Scotland

The research method used in the report includes a combination of geographic information system (GIS) analysis, examination of historical flood data, climate change scenario modeling, and economic impact assessment. The study utilizes various data sources, such as indicative floodplain datasets, postcode data on property locations, land capability classifications, and local authority boundaries. It also incorporates predictions from the UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP) and other climate models to estimate changes in precipitation, temperature, sea-level rise, and storm surges. The economic impact analysis employs the concept of House Equivalents to estimate average annual damage to properties at risk from flooding.

This report examines the future risks and drivers of flooding and coastal erosion in Scotland, focusing on the period from 2030 to 2100. It analyzes the potential impacts of climate change, land use, and socio-economic factors on flood risk, and provides recommendations for managing these risks sustainably. The study compares findings for the UK with specific conditions in Scotland, such as climate patterns, river behaviors, and coastal processes, to ascertain similarities and differences. It also assesses the economic dimensions of flooding in Scotland, identifying key areas and sectors at risk, and estimates the average annual damage under present and future climates. The report concludes with a ranking of drivers that could change local flood risk and suggests areas for future research to refine predictions and inform effective flood management strategies.

Categories: 2004 publication year | English publication language | scotland geographic scope | united kingdom geographic scope