Future Trends in the Gulf

Chatham House Report Jane Kinninmont February 2015 Future Trends in the Gulf

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The Gulf states are undergoing rapid social and economic change, with a young, increasingly well-educated population gaining access to a wide range of information. The current economic model, based on hydrocarbon wealth, is unsustainable, and the region is moving towards a post-oil era. This transition, along with demographic shifts and the democratization of information, is creating pressures for greater transparency, freedom of expression, and political participation. The GCC states are also becoming more assertive in regional politics, influenced by domestic dynamics and insecurities.

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The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states will experience significant political transformation in the coming decade. Generational change, with 60% of the population under 30, is straining traditional political structures. Energy revenues are insufficient to sustain the current political-economic bargain long-term, with three GCC countries needing oil at $100 per barrel to balance their budgets. Hydrocarbon resources will deplete within the lifetime of citizens born today. Shifts in political economy, demographics, education, and information availability will affect power relations between states and citizens, citizens and expatriates, and various social groups.

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