Global Foresight 2022

This report presents three scenarios for the world in 2030, focusing on the impact of climate change, the potential for a democratic renaissance, and the risks of Kremlin aggression.

The research method involves strategic foresight and global trend analysis, drawing on the authors' experience in the US intelligence community and beyond. It includes analyzing current trends, forecasting future scenarios, and identifying potential risks and opportunities.

• Exploratory in nature
• Scenarios are developed

The report explores ten trends shaping the future, including technological disruption, deglobalization, and climate change. It presents three scenarios for 2030: a Cold War II with China and Russia, a world transformed by climate shocks, and a democratic renaissance. It also identifies twelve risks and opportunities for 2022, such as new COVID-19 variants, Russia attacking Ukraine, and China's economic sputter.

Drivers mentioned include:

• The Vaccine Miracle—and Cautionary Message
• Technology's Double-edged Sword
• Here Comes Deglobalization
• The Deepening of Domestic Disorders
• Meet the New World Order 2.0
• Climate Change: Where Some Sino-US Competition Might Actually Be Good
• A Middle-power Balancing Act against a Bipolar World
• Europe's Quest for Strategic Autonomy
• An Emerging Asia-Pacific Hedging Strategy
• The Growing Internationalization of Conflict

Categories: 2022 publication year | 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | 2035 time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | climate change | conflict | covid | democracy | economic growth | food | geopolitics | inequality | multipolarity | regionalism | security | sino-us tensions | technological disruption