Global Scenarios to 2025
This report explores three potential global futures—Borrowed Time, Fragmented World, and Constant Renewal—each reflecting different outcomes based on current trends and decisions. Borrowed Time is a continuation of the status quo, leading to unsustainable futures. Fragmented World is characterized by selfish national interests, constrained growth, and a lack of cooperation. Constant Renewal depicts a world where crises prompt collaborative efforts for sustainable change. The scenarios highlight the importance of strategic planning and the need for leaders to prioritize issues and recognize the interconnectedness of global challenges.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Office of the Director of National Intelligence |
| Authors: | Alfonso Leon, Ann K. Holder, Doug Randall, Dr. Alexander Van De Putte, Dr. Cho Khong, Dr. David Gates, Fareed Mohamedi, Paul Herman, Peter Schwartz, Prof. Barry B. Hughes, Prof. Jean-pierre Lehmann, Robert Go, Sanjay Purohit, Wai Chiew Chik, Dr. Mathew J. Burrows, National Intelligence Council. |
| Time horizon: | 2025 |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research method involved developing scenarios through workshops with over 200 participants from around 40 countries, using the Intuitive Logics School approach and the deductive scenario development process. The STEEP framework helped identify key issues, which were then prioritized and refined through interactive workshops and scenario writing, supported by economic and energy modeling.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report presents three global scenarios up to 2025, examining the implications of current trends and decisions. Borrowed Time suggests a business-as-usual approach with unsustainable long-term consequences. Fragmented World shows a future where nations prioritize self-interest, leading to economic stagnation and security challenges. Constant Renewal envisions a collaborative world responding to crises with sustainable solutions. The scenarios underscore the urgency for leaders to address global issues collectively and adapt to rapid changes, emphasizing the role of technology, civil society, and international institutions in shaping the future.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2020s time horizon | 2025 time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | alternative futures | america's image | america’s global image | arms race | balance of power | bio attack | capital markets | cbw proliferation | china's economy | china's leadership | china's slowing economy | china’s leadership in region/world | climate change | climate change mitigation | corruption | critical uncertainties | decoupling | decoupling from us economy | deductive approach | discontinuities | economic | economic growth | energy demand | energy demand growth | energy infrastructure investment | energy intensity | energy supply security | energy transitions | environment | environmental | environmental sustainability | ethnic tensions | focal questions | food security | fundamentalism | general | genetic sciences | global fdi | global fdi flows | global futures | global governance | global leadership | global trade | innovation | intellectual property rights | interdisciplinary scenarios | intolerance | intuitive logics school | issue prioritization | labor mobility | life sciences | market openness | multilateral solidarity | nuclear proliferation | pandemics | political | population distribution | population growth | predetermined elements | prosperity levels | regional population distribution | regulatory context | religious fundamentalism | russia's economic fundamentals | russia's economy | scenario affirmation | scenario development | scenario logic | scenario planning | scenario quantification | security of energy supply | social development | steep framework | strategic planning | sustainable economic growth | technological progress | technological progress in genetics | technology | technology diffusion | terrorism | trade barriers | two speed economy | urbanization | us economic fundamentals | us economy | us moral leadership | us moral leadership in the world | water scarcity