Mapping Sub-Saharan Africa's Future
This report analyzes likely trends in Sub-Saharan Africa over the next 15 years, focusing on the impact of globalization and local factors on the region's future.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: | Office of the Director of National Intelligence |
| Authors: | National Intelligence Council |
| Time horizon: | 2020 |
| Geographic focus: | Sub-saharan Africa, Global |
Methods
Experts discussed trends in a conference, reviewed literature, and analyzed data to forecast Sub-Saharan Africa's future, focusing on globalization, conflict, terrorism, democracy, AIDS, and foreign influences.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The National Intelligence Council convened US experts to discuss Sub-Saharan Africa's future, considering globalization, political development, economic growth, conflict, terrorism, democratization, AIDS, foreign influences, and religion. The conference concluded that local factors will be decisive in shaping individual African countries' futures. While globalization will differentiate African countries, most will struggle with economic performance, governance, and weak state structures. Violence levels are expected to remain high, with most conflicts being internal. Terrorism will not likely make Africa a major supplier, but indigenous groups will continue to cause most terrorist activities. Democracy will be professed but shallow, with few countries achieving significant democratic gains. AIDS will continue to impact the continent, with large increases in deaths despite medical advances. Traditional foreign powers will likely disengage, while China and India's roles will grow. Upside surprises could include improved hydrocarbon management and scientific advances, while downside risks involve state collapse and ecological downturns. Ultimately, Africa's fate will be determined by a combination of global and local factors.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2020 time horizon | 2020s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | Sub-saharan Africa geographic scope | aids | conflict | democratization | economic growth | foreign influences | futures | globalization | political development | religion | terrorism