Medium Term Economic Effects of Peak Oil Today

This report analyzes the economic implications of peak oil and its effects on global energy demand and prices over the next decade.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research employs the Global Interindustry Forecasting System (GINFORS), a sectorally disaggregated global energy-environment-economy model that combines econometric-statistical analysis with input-output analysis. It simulates scenarios to assess the macroeconomic effects of an oil supply shortage against a baseline scenario based on the IEA World Energy Outlook 2009.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research examines the macroeconomic consequences of peak oil, assuming a decline in oil production and rising demand. It uses the GINFORS model to simulate scenarios, comparing a baseline with no shortage to scenarios with peak oil and peak oil with efficiency/renewable energy measures. The study finds that peak oil could lead to significant oil price increases, affecting economies differently based on their oil productivity and trade relationships. Oil-exporting countries benefit, while others face GDP losses. Efficiency improvements and renewable energy expansion can mitigate negative impacts. The analysis is based on if-then scenarios and highlights the importance of climate action programs.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | economic implications | energy | energy demand | energy efficiency | energy supply | ginfors model | global economy | global interindustry forecasting system | macroeconomic effects | macroeconomic oil prices | oil price | oil production decreases | oil supply shortages | opec | peak oil | renewable energy | russia | scenario analysis