Modelling Future Health: Predicting Health with changing obesity using Micro Simulation

This report examines the impact of obesity trends on future health outcomes and costs using microsimulation models.

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Quick Facts
Report location:	source
Language:	English
Publisher:	johns hopkins global center on childhood obesity Oxford University
Authors:	Tim Marsh, Kim Mcpherson
Time horizon:	1993
Geographic focus:	Global, Usa, Russia, Brazil, Portugal, Mexico, Ireland

Methods

The research method involved creating a computer model of a specified population from 1993 to 2050, reflecting accurate age profiles, birth, death, and health statistics. The model targeted the relationship between individuals' evolving risk factors and disease incidence, simulating the impact of various public health interventions on health outcomes and costs.

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Key Insights

The report by the Johns Hopkins Global Center on Childhood Obesity presents a microsimulation study that models the future health of populations based on current obesity trends. It uses data to predict the incidence of diseases like Type 2 diabetes, hypertension, coronary heart disease, stroke, and certain cancers up to the year 2050. The study also evaluates the potential impact of public health interventions aimed at reducing mean BMI on disease prevalence and healthcare costs. The research suggests that even modest reductions in BMI can lead to significant decreases in disease prevalence and healthcare costs. The report emphasizes the importance of policy interventions in mitigating the health and economic burdens of obesity.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

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