Oil 2024: Analysis and forecast to 2030
Global oil markets are facing significant changes in supply and demand dynamics, influenced by geopolitical tensions, the energy transition, and evolving trade patterns, with projections extending to 2030.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publication date: | June 2024 |
| Publisher: | International Energy Agency |
| Authors: | Alexander Bressers, Ciarán Healy, David Martin, Deven Mooneesawmy, Diane Munro, Jacob Messing, Jenny Thomson, Jeremy Moorhouse, Joel Couse, Julien Canu, Keisuke Sadamori, Lorenzo Squillace, Peg Mackey, Ramiz Farishta, Yuya Akizuki, Toril Bosoni |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | Global, United States, China, India, Europe, Middle East, Africa, Latin America |
Methods
The research method involved comprehensive analysis and forecasting of oil supply and demand dynamics, utilizing data from various sources, including member countries and market trends, to project future scenarios up to 2030.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The International Energy Agency's report on oil from 2024 to 2030 examines the complex landscape of global oil markets, highlighting the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly sanctions on Russia, and the shift in trade routes towards non-OECD Asia, especially China and India. The report notes a structural decline in oil demand growth in advanced economies, while emerging economies in Asia will account for all global demand growth. The report forecasts that oil demand will plateau around 106 mb/d by the end of the decade, driven by increased use of jet fuel and petrochemical feedstocks, despite a significant rise in electric vehicle adoption and efficiency improvements. Global oil production capacity is expected to exceed demand, leading to unprecedented spare capacity levels. The report also discusses the challenges faced by refiners as demand for refined products declines, necessitating adjustments in product output. Additionally, it highlights the growing importance of natural gas liquids (NGLs) and biofuels in the energy landscape, with projections indicating a significant increase in their production and use. Overall, the report provides a comprehensive outlook on the evolving oil market, emphasizing the need for adaptability among producers and refiners in response to these changes.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | English publication language | 2024 publication year | Africa geographic scope | China geographic scope | Europe geographic scope | Global geographic scope | India geographic scope | Latin America geographic scope | Middle East geographic scope | United States geographic scope | biofuels | electric vehicles | energy transition | geopolitical tensions | market forecasts | natural gas liquids | oil demand | oil supply | refining capacity | trade dynamics