Oil & Gas 2030: Let There Be Change

This report examines the challenges and opportunities for the oil and gas industry in adapting to a decarbonizing world and outlines strategies for reinvention by 2030.

Excerpt from report:
“For years, oil and gas companies have struggled to achieve profitability, capture investors’ interest and secure public trust. Those challenges have been exacerbated recently by an abundance of supply, the growing decarbonization momentum and the structural shifts in consumer behaviors. Many companies’ relevance— and even their social license to operate—are called into question.”

The research method involved analyzing industry data, market trends, and economic models to assess the current state and future outlook of the oil and gas industry. The report also considered the impact of technological advancements, societal values, and regulatory changes on the industry.

Numerical analysis of factors like total cost of ownership for electric vehicles, break even points for different fossil sources (but only in their contemporary context), quantification of monetary value in different parts of the fossil supply chain. No use of scenarios, beyond a baseline that is not explicitly articulated.

• Simulation and modeling

The oil and gas industry faces significant challenges, including profitability, investor interest, and public trust. The COVID-19 pandemic exacerbated these issues, disrupting demand and indicating that a return to “business as usual” is unlikely. The industry must reinvent itself by questioning established paradigms and investing in new capabilities and ways of working. By 2030, electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to be more competitive than internal combustion engines (ICEs), and the industry must adapt to a structurally challenged margin outlook and societal shifts. Profit pools are moving downstream and away from fossil fuels, prompting oil and gas companies to reassess their portfolio strategies. Three emerging strategies are “The Oil & Gas Specialist,” “The Energy Major,” and “The Low-Carbon Leader,” each with a different focus on energy sources and customer needs. Companies must also invest in key capabilities such as operations, capital allocation, offerings, industry collaboration, and ways of working to succeed in the next decade. The report suggests a blueprint for companies to start their transformation journey and emphasizes the need for urgent action to remain relevant in a de-carbonizing world.

Drivers mentioned include:

• Electric Vehicles
• De-carbonizing Economy
• Digital Technologies
• Collaboration
• Workforce Composition

Categories: 2021 publication year | 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | 2035 time horizon | English publication language | diversificiation | energy | gas | global geographic scope | oil | sustainability