On the Forecast Accuracy of Sports Prediction Markets
This study evaluates the forecast accuracy of prediction markets for the FIFA World Cup 2006 against FIFA rankings and a random predictor.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg |
| Authors: | Christian Slamka, Jan Schröder, Stefan Luckner |
| Time horizon: | 2006 |
| Geographic focus: | Germany, Spain |
Methods
The research method involved an empirical study comparing the forecast accuracy of a prediction market with the FIFA world ranking and a random predictor for the FIFA World Cup 2006 outcomes.
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Key Insights
Prediction markets, where virtual stocks of sports outcomes are traded, are analyzed for their accuracy in forecasting the FIFA World Cup 2006 results. The study compares the performance of these markets to predictions based on the FIFA world ranking and a random predictor. It finds that prediction markets outperform both the FIFA ranking and random predictions in terms of forecast accuracy.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2000s time horizon | 2006 time horizon | English publication language | Germany geographic scope | Spain geographic scope | betting odds | fifa ranking | fifa world cup | forecast accuracy | futures | information aggregation | market prices | prediction markets | random predictor | sports forecasting | trading interface