Planning the unplannable: Scenarios on the future of space

This article explores scenario analysis as a tool to evaluate potential space futures, focusing on space security challenges amid rapid and uncertain change.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method involved a two-day workshop where experts from various fields used scenario analysis to create detailed visions of future developments in space. Participants identified key drivers and critical uncertainties, then divided into teams to develop narrative scenarios, each reflecting different potential outcomes based on the interplay of identified factors.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report examines the use of scenario analysis to assess potential futures in space, particularly regarding space security, in the face of rapid and uncertain changes in human space activities. It describes the successful application of scenario analysis in other sectors and presents results from an initial workshop, recommending scenario analysis as a method to evaluate long-term policy consequences in uncertain contexts and to foster consensus among diverse stakeholders.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | energy | futures | governance | policy choices | scenario analysis | science | space activities | space futures | space security | space weaponization | stakeholder communication | technological change | technology | uncertainty