Prospects for Africa's 26 fragile countries
This report forecasts the long-term fragility of 26 African countries using the International Futures system.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
Institute for Security Studies |
| Authors: | Timothy D Sisk, Jakkie Cilliers |
| Time horizon: | 2030 |
| Geographic focus: | Africa |
Methods
The research method involved using the International Futures (IFs) forecasting tool to analyze data and create long-term forecasts for 26 fragile African countries. The method included defining fragility, identifying relevant variables, and generating optimistic and pessimistic scenarios.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report analyzes the future of 26 fragile African countries, predicting that some will remain fragile into the mid-21st century, while others may progress towards stability and middle-income status by 2030 or 2050. It uses the International Futures forecasting tool to examine variables of fragility and provides optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. Recommendations include planning for long-term fragility, managing conflict, addressing poverty, and improving governance.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2030 time horizon | 2030s time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | conflict reduction | economic growth | education | forecasting | fragility syndrome | governance improvement | health | human development | human security | natural-resource exploitation | policy recommendations | protection | scenario analysis | state capacity | state fragility | urbanization | war and violence