Scenario Analysis
This report examines three scenarios for household energy use in South Africa by 2014, considering the impact of economic growth, regional cooperation, and policy effectiveness on rural and low-income urban households.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
intermediate technology development group – uk, east africa (kenya), southern africa (zimbabwe/mozambique) |
| Authors: | Thobeka Nkosi, Douglas Banks |
| Time horizon: | 2014 |
| Geographic focus: | South Africa, Africa |
Methods
The research method involved scenario analysis, exploring three potential futures for household energy use in South Africa by 2014: business-as-usual, worst-case, and best-case scenarios. These scenarios were not quantitatively modeled but were based on expert opinions and postulates to stimulate discussion.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Key Insights
The report explores three scenarios for South Africa's household energy future in 2014: business-as-usual, worst-case, and best-case. It assesses the effects of economic growth, regional cooperation, and policy on energy access, fuel choice, health, gender, and forestry. The scenarios predict varying levels of electrification, reliance on woodfuel, and use of modern fuels like LPG and ethanol gel, with implications for health, gender equality, and environmental sustainability. Policy recommendations are suggested to address these issues.
(Generated with the help of GPT-4)
Additional Viewpoints
Categories: 2010s time horizon | 2014 time horizon | Africa geographic scope | English publication language | South Africa geographic scope | development | economic growth | electrification | forestry impacts | fuel access | futures | gender issues | health impacts | households | modern fuels | policy effectiveness | regional cooperation