Scenario Planning: a Tool for Conservation in an Uncertain World
Scenario planning is a tool for developing resilient conservation policies in unpredictable conditions.
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| Quick Facts | |
|---|---|
| Report location: | source |
| Language: | English |
| Publisher: |
Conservation Biology |
| Authors: | Graeme S. Cumming, Stephen R. Carpenter, Garry D. Peterson |
| Geographic focus: | Global |
Methods
The research used a systemic method involving six stages: identifying a focal issue, assessing the system, identifying alternatives, building scenarios, testing scenarios for consistency, and screening policies against the scenarios. Stakeholders were involved in workshops to explore the system's dynamics and uncertainties, leading to the creation of plausible future scenarios.
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Key Insights
Scenario planning helps conservationists create flexible policies for uncertain futures by exploring multiple plausible scenarios. It involves diverse stakeholders and can integrate quantitative and qualitative data, leading to better decisions and shared understanding. The method is useful when traditional scientific tools are inadequate due to high unpredictability and uncontrollable factors.
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Additional Viewpoints
Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | biodiversity | conservation | conservation policies | decision making | policy screening | qualitative data | quantitative data | resilience | scenario planning | stakeholder participation | systemic process | uncertain world | uncertainty