Scenarios Analysis with International Futures (IFs)

This paper provides an introduction to using the International Futures (IFs) modeling system for scenario and policy analysis, explaining how it can build on and beyond a base case to explore alternative futures and strategies for intervention.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The research method used in the report involves the International Futures (IFs) modeling system, which employs a “building block” approach to scenario construction and policy analysis, integrating various elements such as framing assumptions, global behavior patterns, agent-class actions, and potential surprises.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

The report introduces the International Futures (IFs) modeling system, designed for scenario and policy analysis. It discusses the importance of forecasting for decision-making and outlines a framework involving values and goals, model building, base case analysis, explicit uncertainty consideration, and intervention exploration. The paper explains the IFs system's “building block” approach to constructing scenarios, which includes framing assumptions, global/regional/country behavior, agent interventions, and wild cards. It also addresses policy analysis, highlighting the need for identifying leverage points and cost-benefit analysis across interventions. The paper concludes with a plan for further elaboration of the IFs system.

(Generated with the help of GPT-4)

Categories: English publication language | Global geographic scope | agent-class behavior | base case | carbon emissions | deforestation. | demographic patterns | environmental uncertainty | forecasting | futures | global behavior | global power | globalization | governance | income distribution | international futures | nationalism | policy analysis | policy intervention | scenario analysis | technological change | water resources | wild cards