Scenarios for 2040

This report explores future scenarios for 2040, focusing on the challenges of economic growth, systems management, and sustainability. It introduces the concept of “two wedges” and three population groups, each with distinct narratives and paths towards 2040. The scenarios are not mutually exclusive and highlight the importance of collaboration and adaptability in addressing systemic challenges.

The research method involved analyzing current trends, expert workshops, and public feedback to develop scenarios for 2040. The team considered economic, political, and social factors, as well as technological advancements and environmental challenges. The scenarios were refined through discussions and the integration of diverse perspectives from around the world.

the annex discusses the methodology used which includes an explanation of the use of cross impact analysis. The report identified 2 scenarios for exploration: one in which SRM is used to mitigate climate effects and one in which it is not.

The report presents three scenarios for 2040: Neglect and Fracture, Yesterday's Future, and Waking Up. It examines the potential for economic development, the management of systemic issues, and the pursuit of sustainability. The scenarios consider the impact of geopolitical collaboration, technological advancements, and societal changes on different population groups. The report emphasizes the need for efficient resource management, international cooperation, and innovation to navigate future challenges.

Categories: 2040 time horizon | 2040s time horizon | English publication language | Global geographic scope | economic growth | economics | environmental challenges | environmental quality | geopolitical collaboration | geopolitics | innovation | international cooperation | resource management | security | societal changes | sustainability | systems management | technological advancements | technology